Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:16:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
ED 0xed91…fbea other 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 259d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$111 (-2%) realized −$109 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate66%62W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$136
7 days−$219
14 days−$219
30 days−$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$122
crypto 6% +$15
sports 4% −$118
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -6.9% -15.8% 71% 43% -12.6%
≤30d 57 -6.8% -15.7% 70% 42% -12.6%
≤90d 59 -8.3% -17.0% 68% 41% -12.6%
all 94 -9.4% -18.1% 66% 40% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 40% -12.5%
10% -25.9% 10% -20.9%
15% -33.1% 5% -28.5%
20% -39.6% 3% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$30 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

259d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized−$109
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses62 / 32
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)94 / 96
History coverage259d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? No 95¢ 96¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 80¢ 75¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $41 −$5 -11%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $93 +$7 +7%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $39 +$2 +5%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $237 −$113 -48%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $335 −$89 -27%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $205 +$54 +26%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $222 +$21 +10%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $231 +$19 +8%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $260 −$34 -13%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $196 +$17 +9%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $235 +$11 +5%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $201 +$26 +13%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $201 +$24 +12%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $238 +$11 +5%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $201 +$22 +11%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $235 +$14 +6%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $328 +$35 +11%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $101 +$13 +13%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $100 +$6 +6%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $90 +$10 +11%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $101 −$75 -74%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $50 +$7 +15%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $50 +$9 +17%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $50 −$18 -36%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $100 +$11 +11%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $89 +$11 +12%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $100 +$15 +14%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $100 +$16 +16%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $51 +$30 +60%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $60 +$6 +11%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $56 +$4 +7%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $60 +$4 +6%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $61 −$16 -27%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $100 +$10 +10%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $97 +$3 +3%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $85 +$15 +17%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $100 +$5 +5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $101 −$7 -7%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $90 +$10 +11%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $84 −$6 -7%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $92 +$8 +9%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $46 +$6 +14%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $83 −$34 -41%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $168 +$23 +14%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $94 +$6 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? BUY No 95¢ $42 23m
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Over 44¢ $36 23m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 80¢ $40 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $41 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL No 100¢ $100 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 69¢ $41 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $39 4h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 93¢ $93 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY No 27¢ $5 21h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL No 41¢ $105 21h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY No 89¢ $231 24h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 44¢ $167 24h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 52¢ $133 24h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 61¢ $30 24h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 61¢ $2 24h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 61¢ $4 24h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 61¢ $19 24h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 61¢ $12 24h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 61¢ $12 24h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 78¢ $203 25h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? SELL No 100¢ $260 25h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? SELL No 100¢ $100 25h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 79¢ $187 25h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 79¢ $18 25h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? SELL No 96¢ $144 25h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 89¢ $54 25h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 89¢ $8 25h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 89¢ $8 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.72 · official $79.47 (match) · 281 history records