trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -1.8% | -11.1% | 33% | 0% | -12.2% |
| ≤30d | 17 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 29% | 0% | -10.5% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -0.8% | -10.2% | 29% | 0% | -10.5% |
| all | 26 | +44.6% | +30.8% | 50% | 4% | +6.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +30.8% | 4% | +6.1% |
| 10% | +18.3% | 4% | -4.1% |
| 15% | +6.9% | 4% | -13.4% |
| 20% | -3.6% | 4% | -21.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 91¢ | 91¢ | $28 | $28 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 23 | $60 | −$4 | -6% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 23 | $32 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 07 | $32 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 06 | $3 | $0 | -1% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 06 | $29 | $0 | +1% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 06 | $61 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 05 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Jun 05 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $56 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Jun 01 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | May 29 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 28 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 28 | $32 | $0 | -1% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 27 | $32 | −$3 | -9% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 27 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 26 | $31 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? | Dec 13 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Jun 26 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 20 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? | May 20 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? | May 08 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 42°F or below on March 23? | Mar 22 | $185 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? | Mar 22 | $183 | +$2 | +1% |
| Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 11-17? | Mar 18 | $15 | +$169 | +1163% |
| Will another team have the highest Constructor score at the Australian | Mar 17 | $15 | $0 | +0% |