Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:17:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed9b…d616 crypto 1278 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,731 (-0%) realized −$1,731 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate88%1123W / 155L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$512per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$3,921
politics 2% −$6,036
world 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -4.8% -13.8% 86% 21% -17.7%
≤30d 14 -4.8% -13.8% 86% 21% -17.7%
≤90d 337 -0.6% -10.1% 91% 8% -21.0%
all 1278 -0.7% -10.2% 88% 15% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 15% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 7% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 4% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$138 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,731
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1123 / 155
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1278 / 1278
History coverage176d
Avg bet$512
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1278 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 29 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $32 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 29 $28 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 29 $23 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 29 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $12 +$8 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 29 $11 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 09 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 09 $3 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 09 $181 −$178 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 09 $79 +$102 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 09 $256 −$205 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 09 $281 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 09 $269 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 09 $267 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 09 $264 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 09 $262 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 09 $241 +$19 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 09 $232 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 09 $192 +$39 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 09 $387 −$193 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 09 $383 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 09 $372 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 09 $372 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 09 $368 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 09 $365 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 09 $357 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 09 $359 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 09 $355 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 09 $346 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 08 $345 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 08 $342 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 08 $314 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 08 $323 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 08 $320 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 08 $317 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 08 $280 +$20 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 08 $295 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 08 $292 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 08 $289 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 08 $279 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 08 $280 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 08 $278 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $6 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $181 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $79 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $51 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $256 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $256 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $269 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $267 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $129 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $34 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3249 history records