Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:43:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xed9d…8301 sports 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,199 (-23%) realized −$5,179 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%22W / 18L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$541per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$111est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,334now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,064
7 days−$1,064
14 days−$1,064
30 days−$1,064
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$5,239
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +6.3% -3.9% 67% 67% -33.8%
≤30d 3 +6.3% -3.9% 67% 67% -33.8%
≤90d 9 +5.8% -4.3% 67% 67% -35.6%
all 40 -7.8% -16.6% 55% 55% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 55% -33.4%
10% -24.5% 50% -39.8%
15% -31.8% 45% -45.6%
20% -38.5% 28% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$502) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$243 vs −$587 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$2,334
Realized−$5,179
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses22 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$111
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage232d
Avg bet$541
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jessica Pegula 57¢ 56¢ $2,354 $2,334 −$20 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $1,825 +$675 +37%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $220 +$180 +82%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $1,919 −$1,919 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $231 +$69 +30%
Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Michael Mmoh May 03 $789 +$390 +49%
Madrid Open: Solana Sierra vs Karolina Pliskova Apr 27 $1,057 +$734 +70%
Madrid Open: Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk Apr 27 $1,035 −$1,016 -98%
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Tomas Etcheverry Apr 26 $65 +$54 +83%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan Apr 02 $1,725 −$1,725 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Vitor Petrino vs. Steven Asplund (Heavyweight, Prelim Mar 15 $2,467 −$2,467 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Pl Mar 14 $1,992 +$1,503 +75%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 06 $502 −$502 -100%
76ers vs. Raptors Jan 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 07 $22 +$8 +39%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs G2 (BO3) Dec 06 $591 +$259 +44%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) Dec 05 $104 +$92 +89%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Liquid (BO3) Dec 05 $70 −$70 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Dec 05 $166 +$89 +54%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TheMongolz (BO1) Dec 05 $466 −$466 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO1) Dec 05 $262 +$74 +28%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Dec 05 $419 −$419 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Imperial (BO1) Dec 05 $292 +$56 +19%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO1) Dec 04 $114 +$268 +235%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Dec 04 $68 −$68 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO1) Dec 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs 3DMAX (BO1) Dec 04 $423 −$423 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs G2 (BO1) Dec 04 $10 +$4 +47%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid (BO1) Dec 04 $350 +$147 +42%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs TheMongolz (BO1) Dec 04 $79 +$124 +156%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Dec 03 $409 +$205 +50%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) Dec 02 $221 +$260 +118%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs M80 (BO3) Dec 02 $382 −$380 -99%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs M80 (BO3) Dec 02 $131 −$131 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Passion UA (BO3) Dec 01 $437 −$437 -100%
Iowa vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Dec 01 $128 −$128 -100%
Pistons vs. Celtics Nov 27 $246 −$246 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Nov 07 $135 −$135 -100%
Vanderbilt vs. Texas Nov 02 $90 +$60 +67%
Wizards vs. Thunder Oct 31 $178 +$22 +12%
Jacksonville State vs. Middle Tennessee Oct 30 $124 +$76 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 56¢ $3 3m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 56¢ $6 15m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 56¢ $2 28m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 56¢ $4 30m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 57¢ $2,309 30m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 56¢ $3 45m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 56¢ $9 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 56¢ $6 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 56¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 56¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 56¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 56¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 56¢ $35 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 73¢ $1,825 13h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $220 16h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $871 23h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $81 23h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $151 23h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $381 24h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $68 24h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $349 24h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $18 24h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff SELL Vitality 100¢ $200 46d
Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Michael Mmoh BUY Gauthier Onclin 94¢ $188 46d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff BUY Vitality 77¢ $77 46d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff BUY Vitality 76¢ $32 46d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff BUY Vitality 76¢ $44 46d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff BUY Vitality 78¢ $64 46d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff BUY Vitality 78¢ $14 46d
Abidjan 2: Gauthier Onclin vs Michael Mmoh SELL Gauthier Onclin 53¢ $154 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,334.45 · official $2,334.86 (match) · 226 history records