Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:11:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
ED 0xed9f…deba crypto 157 markets active 2h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,187 (+2%) realized +$1,538 · open −$351
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate82%128W / 28L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$472per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5,649now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$650
7 days+$1,388
14 days+$1,833
30 days+$1,833
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$575
sports 34% +$1,146
other 13% +$319
finance 0% −$49
politics 0% +$8
tech 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +6.8% -3.4% 100% 25% -3.3%
≤30d 7 -7.0% -15.8% 86% 29% -3.8%
≤90d 7 -7.0% -15.8% 86% 29% -3.8%
all 156 -5.2% -14.2% 82% 42% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 42% -7.9%
10% -22.4% 12% -16.7%
15% -29.9% 8% -24.8%
20% -36.8% 3% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$180 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$5,649
Realized+$1,538
Unrealized−$351
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses128 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions1
Markets (closed)156 / 157
History coverage196d
Avg bet$472
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? No 94¢ 88¢ $6,000 $5,649 −$351 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $5,418 +$650 +12%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $5,206 +$216 +4%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5,005 +$178 +4%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $4,708 +$344 +7%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 17 $510 −$510 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $4,336 +$372 +9%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,751 +$583 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 21 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jan 20 $216 +$23 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 20 $130 +$86 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 20 $107 +$23 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jan 19 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 19 $323 −$323 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jan 19 $291 −$291 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 18 $265 +$26 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 18 $189 +$76 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 17 $454 +$58 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 17 $370 +$84 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 17 $324 +$46 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 17 $300 +$25 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 17 $234 −$234 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 16 $205 +$29 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 16 $184 +$21 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 16 $1,291 −$1,291 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 15 $1,213 +$177 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jan 15 $1,104 +$210 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jan 14 $1,134 +$70 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 14 $1,105 +$129 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 14 $1,011 +$195 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 13 $892 +$119 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 13 $857 +$35 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 13 $831 +$26 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 13 $713 +$118 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 12 $671 +$42 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 12 $604 +$67 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jan 12 $584 +$19 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 12 $515 +$70 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jan 11 $469 +$46 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 11 $414 +$55 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 11 $21 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 11 $371 +$21 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jan 11 $383 +$10 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jan 09 $323 +$60 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 09 $282 +$41 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 09 $221 +$61 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jan 08 $695 −$695 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 08 $184 +$37 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jan 08 $163 +$22 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 7, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jan 08 $107 +$56 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 07 $89 +$18 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 94¢ $6,011 2h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $5,418 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $5,206 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 96¢ $5,005 4d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $4,708 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 92¢ $4,336 7d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 86¢ $3,751 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $510 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $240 154d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $216 155d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 SELL No 100¢ $216 155d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 BUY No 60¢ $130 155d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $107 155d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 156d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $291 156d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $265 157d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $189 157d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $323 157d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $454 158d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $370 158d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $324 158d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $300 158d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $234 158d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $205 159d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $184 159d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1,291 159d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1,171 160d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $43 160d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1,104 160d
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1,134 161d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,648.94 · official $5,648.94 (match) · 352 history records