Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:22:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.0
score
ED 0xeda5…e16d other 55 markets active 4d ago coverage 64d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,251 (+29%) realized +$1,723 · open +$1,528
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate79%26W / 7L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day33.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$4,341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$797
14 days+$1,063
30 days+$1,074
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$2,623
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+48.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +28.4% +16.1% 83% 67% +14.7%
≤30d 29 +71.6% +55.3% 79% 59% +6.3%
≤90d 33 +63.8% +48.2% 79% 55% +6.1%
all 33 +63.8% +48.2% 79% 55% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +48.2% 55% +6.1%
10% ← realistic here +34.0% 39% -4.0%
15% +21.0% 24% -13.3%
20% +9.2% 18% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +64% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +114% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
24.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$20 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.86 per $1 lost it wins $8.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$4,341
Realized+$1,723
Unrealized+$1,528
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses26 / 7
Open positions22
Markets (closed)33 / 55
History coverage64d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day33.7
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? No 31¢ 83¢ $480 $1,275 +$795 (+166%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? No 53¢ 97¢ $638 $1,173 +$535 (+84%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? No 65¢ 86¢ $392 $515 +$123 (+31%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June? No 83¢ 99¢ $338 $402 +$64 (+19%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 72¢ 72¢ $325 $325 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? No 90¢ 99¢ $179 $198 +$19 (+11%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 78¢ 84¢ $127 $136 +$9 (+7%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? No 92¢ 99¢ $74 $80 +$6 (+8%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 92¢ 99¢ $56 $60 +$4 (+8%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? No 70¢ 92¢ $28 $37 +$9 (+32%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of December? No 86¢ 94¢ $29 $32 +$3 (+10%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 88¢ 99¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+13%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December? No 91¢ 96¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+6%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? No 88¢ 97¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+10%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? No 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 36¢ 6¢ $55 $9 −$46 (-83%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 90¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,600 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $60 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 17¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-62%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of June 202 Jun 11 $205 +$126 +61%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? Jun 11 $215 −$5 -2%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026 Jun 11 $81 +$16 +20%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? Jun 11 $122 +$20 +16%
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? Jun 11 $35 +$2 +6%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Jun 11 $439 +$9 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Jun 11 $206 −$4 -2%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of June 202 Jun 10 $393 +$228 +58%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? Jun 10 $495 +$94 +19%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $65 on the final trading day of June 2026 Jun 10 $11 +$10 +94%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? Jun 09 $127 +$35 +28%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June? Jun 09 $645 +$266 +41%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026 Jun 09 $31 +$10 +31%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 08 $326 +$32 +10%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 08 $270 +$65 +24%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of June 202 Jun 08 $241 +$24 +10%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,200 on the final trading day of June 202 Jun 08 $68 +$21 +31%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 08 $1,509 +$91 +6%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June? Jun 05 $306 −$119 -39%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? Jun 05 $385 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,900 by end of June? Jun 05 $176 +$137 +78%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026 Jun 04 $32 +$4 +13%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of June? Jun 02 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $95 on the final trading day of June 2026 Jun 01 $46 +$11 +24%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? May 28 $3 +$2 +45%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? May 27 $22 −$3 -14%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June? May 26 $60 −$6 -11%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of June? May 20 $14 +$9 +61%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? May 18 $3 −$1 -37%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? May 13 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June? May 11 $7 $0 +3%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? May 06 $129 +$21 +16%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June? Apr 24 $3 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 3d
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of June 202 SELL No 85¢ $17 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 4d
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 4d
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $96 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $9 4d
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026 SELL No 88¢ $11 4d
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026 SELL No 88¢ $23 4d
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026 SELL No 88¢ $11 4d
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026 SELL No 88¢ $26 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $7 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $66 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $29 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $29 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $1 4d
Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026 SELL No 90¢ $10 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL Yes 30¢ $7 4d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 4d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,340.84 · official $4,340.56 (match) · 2166 history records