Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedb2…ccf3 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$31 (-2%) realized +$83 · open −$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%10W / 21L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$23
30 days−$283
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$309
crypto 18% −$57
tech 14% −$200
sports 3% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-47.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 23 -51.4% -56.0% 26% 26% -77.9%
≤90d 31 -42.3% -47.8% 32% 29% +4.5%
all 31 -42.3% -47.8% 32% 29% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.8% 29% +4.5%
10% -52.8% 29% -5.5%
15% -57.4% 23% -14.6%
20% -61.6% 23% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$19 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$251
Realized+$83
Unrealized−$114
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses10 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)31 / 36
History coverage49d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $100 $84 −$16 (-16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $100 $61 −$39 (-39%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $95 $44 −$50 (-53%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +84%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 03 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 02 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 02 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 02 $15 −$15 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 02 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 28 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 28 $5 +$3 +55%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $309 +$459 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 12 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $49 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $99 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 16¢ $5 7d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $3 13d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 14d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 99¢ $9 15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 16d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 53¢ $5 16d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 16d
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 17d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 17d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 18d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 18d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 18d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 18d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $206 26d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.75 · official $250.75 (match) · 85 history records