Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:27:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
ED 0xedb2…3637 other 24 markets active 15d ago coverage 42d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$268 (-27%) realized −$76 · open −$192
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$504now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$93
other 37% −$197
world 18% +$6
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-38.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.2% -6.7% 100% 0% -6.7%
≤30d 5 -4.6% -13.7% 80% 40% -12.2%
≤90d 7 -31.9% -38.4% 57% 29% -39.5%
all 7 -31.9% -38.4% 57% 29% -39.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.4% 29% -39.5%
10% -44.3% 14% -45.3%
15% -49.7% 14% -50.6%
20% -54.6% 0% -55.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$46 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$504
Realized−$76
Unrealized−$192
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions17
Markets (closed)7 / 24
History coverage42d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-3%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $73 $62 −$10 (-14%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ $30 $50 +$20 (+66%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 35¢ 22¢ $73 $46 −$27 (-37%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-16%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $38 +$8 (+26%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $20 −$12 (-38%)
Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? Yes 43¢ 14¢ $50 $16 −$34 (-67%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $16 −$16 (-50%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 92¢ 84¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $12 −$20 (-62%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $10 −$22 (-69%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $8 −$24 (-75%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $5 −$27 (-83%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $5 −$15 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $15 $0 +3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $75 +$36 +49%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 02 $50 +$8 +17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 01 $3 $0 +8%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $33 −$32 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $15 15d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 15d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 15d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 15d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 15d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 93¢ $111 15d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $15 23d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 23d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 97¢ $15 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $15 23d
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen SELL Yes 35¢ $58 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 92¢ $3 35d
Will Putin visit China by May 31? BUY No $5 41d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 43d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 43d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 43d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 43d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 43d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 43d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 43d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 43d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 43d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 43d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 43d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 43d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 43d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 43d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $23 43d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $23 46d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $503.64 · official $503.74 (match) · 102 history records