Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:24:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedba…458a other 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%3W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$4
politics 25% −$3
sports 18% −$1
crypto 11% −$1
world 9% −$6
economics 4% −$1
tech 3% $0
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 26 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 64 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses3 / 61
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage198d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $585 −$4 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $293 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $293 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $294 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $294 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $294 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 08 $294 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $294 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $295 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $295 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $295 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 13 $296 $0 +0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $296 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $297 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $297 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $297 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 05 $297 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $297 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $298 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $298 $0 +0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Mar 30 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 28 $298 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $298 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 25 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 20 $299 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $299 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 18 $299 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Mar 17 $299 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $299 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $299 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? Mar 11 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 March 2-8? Mar 08 $300 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $285 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $288 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 04 $285 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 03 $288 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 03 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 28 $290 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 26 $292 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 24 $289 +$1 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Feb 08 $288 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 07 $288 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $295 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Jan 05 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 23 $288 $0 -0%
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 22 $293 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 21 $290 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 20 $287 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $290 1h
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $293 13h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $293 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $293 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $293 12d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $293 13d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $293 21d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $293 21d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $293 23d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $294 24d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $294 31d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $294 32d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $294 34d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $294 35d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $294 39d
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $294 39d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $294 42d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $294 42d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $294 45d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $294 45d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $295 61d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $295 62d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $295 62d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $295 63d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $295 63d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $295 64d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $295 66d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $296 67d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $296 67d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $296 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 193 history records