Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:37:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

ED 0xedba…56b5 world 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d

RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip

Net edge+14%after slip

Net WR58%break-even

Win rate58%7W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$65per market

Trades / day1.2pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$5

7 days−$134

14 days−$134

30 days+$8

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)+14.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+5.9%	-4.2%	38%	38%	-34.8%
≤30d	12	+26.1%	+14.0%	58%	58%	-8.6%
≤90d	12	+26.1%	+14.0%	58%	58%	-8.6%
all	12	+26.1%	+14.0%	58%	58%	-8.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+14.0%	58%	-8.6%
10%	+3.1%	50%	-17.4%
15%	-6.8%	42%	-25.3%
20%	-16.0%	25%	-32.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 47% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +26% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +11% → late +41% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$35 vs −$47 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.03 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage

Net worth$84

Realized+$6

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses7 / 5

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)12 / 14

History coverage29d

Avg bet$65

Trades / day1.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	Team Falcons	82¢	88¢	$55	$59	+$4 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	Team Falcons	62¢	56¢	$27	$24	−$3 (-10%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Jun 21	$39	+$15	+39%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Jun 21	$166	−$19	-11%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Jun 20	$22	−$17	-77%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?	Jun 19	$30	+$25	+84%
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?	Jun 18	$20	+$63	+312%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	Jun 18	$21	−$21	-100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Jun 15	$170	−$170	-100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Jun 01	$120	+$50	+42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	May 28	$97	+$23	+24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	May 27	$81	+$15	+19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	May 24	$30	+$53	+181%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	SELL FURIA	47¢	$20	10m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	62¢	$27	13m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	BUY FURIA	61¢	$5	21m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner	BUY FURIA	61¢	$22	21m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$55	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof	BUY Team Falcons	82¢	$55	1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	75¢	$14	2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	BUY Team Falcons	69¢	$25	2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	SELL Yes	100¢	$80	5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	BUY Yes	85¢	$68	26h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	SELL No	15¢	$10	26h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	SELL Yes	5¢	$5	26h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	BUY No	59¢	$40	41h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?	SELL No	99¢	$55	41h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	23¢	$22	41h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	SELL Yes	49¢	$31	42h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	BUY Yes	56¢	$35	42h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	SELL No	43¢	$27	42h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	BUY No	36¢	$23	2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?	BUY No	54¢	$30	2d
Will Pakistan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?	BUY Yes	24¢	$20	3d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$2	4d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$8	4d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$0	4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	1¢	$10	4d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$11	5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	BUY No	37¢	$170	20d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	BUY No	71¢	$120	23d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	SELL No	99¢	$120	23d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28?	BUY No	80¢	$97	25d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.75 · official $83.75 (match) · 39 history records