Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
ED 0xedba…1845 other 107 markets active 2h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate82%87W / 19L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$622per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 82% −$52
economics 6% +$9
crypto 6% +$24
culture 5% +$28
other 1% −$75
sports 0% +$24
tech 0% +$1
world 0% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 106 -2.5% -11.8% 82% 19% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 19% -9.6%
10% -20.2% 14% -18.2%
15% -28.0% 8% -26.1%
20% -35.0% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses87 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage630d
Avg bet$622
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $95 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 24 $95 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? May 19 $95 $0 +0%
ICE shooter charged by March 31? Apr 23 $15 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? Apr 23 $40 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 23 $40 $0 +1%
Will Tesla reach $600 in February? Mar 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? Mar 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft reach $533 in February? Mar 15 $34 $0 +1%
Will Netflix reach $228 in January? Feb 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the February meeting? Feb 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tesla reach $578 in January? Feb 20 $14 $0 +1%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after February 202 Feb 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $0.00 end of January? Feb 20 $19 $0 +0%
Will Amazon dip to $156 in January? Feb 20 $26 $0 +0%
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Alexander Zverev vs Felix Aug Dec 09 $8 −$8 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex de Dec 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Gangwon FC win on 2025-11-30? Dec 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Gwangju FC win on 2025-11-30? Dec 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Jeju SK FC win on 2025-11-30? Dec 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Anyang win on 2025-11-30? Dec 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Suwon FC win on 2025-11-30? Dec 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Pohang Steelers FC win on 2025-11-30? Dec 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC end in a draw? Dec 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ulsan HD FC win on 2025-11-30? Dec 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Daegu FC win on 2025-11-30? Dec 09 $7 +$4 +54%
Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. FC Seoul end in a draw? Dec 09 $10 +$4 +37%
Will FC Seoul win on 2025-11-30? Dec 09 $10 +$4 +45%
Will Suwon FC vs. Gwangju FC end in a draw? Dec 09 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Ulsan HD FC vs. Jeju SK FC end in a draw? Dec 09 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC win on 2025-11-30? Dec 09 $12 +$17 +138%
Will Daegu FC vs. FC Anyang end in a draw? Dec 09 $10 +$21 +212%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Novak Djokovic vs Taylor F Nov 28 $5 $0 -2%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Nov 28 $8 +$2 +24%
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Ben Shelton vs Felix Auger-Al Nov 28 $8 +$2 +24%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Nov 28 $7 +$3 +51%
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zv Nov 28 $9 +$1 +12%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Taylor Fritz vs Alex de Mi Nov 28 $7 +$3 +41%
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Jannik Sinner vs Felix Auger- Nov 28 $10 +$1 +6%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor F Nov 28 $10 +$1 +11%
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Jannik Sinner vs Ben Shelton Nov 28 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Jean-Louis Billon win the 2025 Ivory Coast presidential election? Nov 09 $56 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th Nov 09 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 01 $205 $0 +0%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Lands in Las Vegas Aug 20 $141 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jul 15 $102 +$1 +1%
Will another party win the most seats in the House of Representatives Jun 03 $105 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? May 04 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 04 $104 +$1 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 21 $1,000 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $96 1h
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY No 100¢ $95 35d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $95 61d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? BUY No 99¢ $40 101d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? BUY No 99¢ $40 101d
ICE shooter charged by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $15 101d
Will Microsoft reach $533 in February? BUY No 99¢ $34 123d
Will Tesla reach $600 in February? BUY No 100¢ $30 123d
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? BUY No 99¢ $31 123d
Will Tesla reach $578 in January? BUY No 99¢ $14 156d
Will Netflix reach $228 in January? BUY No 100¢ $10 156d
Will Amazon dip to $156 in January? BUY No 100¢ $26 156d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $0.00 end of January? BUY Yes 100¢ $19 156d
Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the February meeting? BUY No 100¢ $12 156d
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after February 202 BUY No 100¢ $14 156d
Will FC Seoul win on 2025-11-30? BUY No 69¢ $10 208d
Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. FC Seoul end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $10 208d
Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $12 208d
Will Gangwon FC win on 2025-11-30? BUY No 61¢ $8 208d
Will Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 208d
Will Pohang Steelers FC win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 208d
Will Daegu FC win on 2025-11-30? BUY No 65¢ $7 208d
Will Daegu FC vs. FC Anyang end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 208d
Will FC Anyang win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 208d
Will Gwangju FC win on 2025-11-30? BUY No 76¢ $15 208d
Will Suwon FC vs. Gwangju FC end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $15 208d
Will Suwon FC win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 208d
Will Jeju SK FC win on 2025-11-30? BUY No 80¢ $20 208d
Will Ulsan HD FC vs. Jeju SK FC end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $20 208d
Will Ulsan HD FC win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 208d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.45 · official $95.45 (match) · 261 history records