Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedbc…6824 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$57 (-21%) realized −$63 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$68
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$67
sports 28% +$6
world 2% $0
tech 2% $0
politics 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +20.8% +9.3% 60% 60% -23.9%
≤30d 14 -5.8% -14.8% 50% 43% -37.2%
≤90d 14 -5.8% -14.8% 50% 43% -37.2%
all 14 -5.8% -14.8% 50% 43% -37.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 43% -37.2%
10% -22.9% 36% -43.2%
15% -30.4% 29% -48.7%
20% -37.2% 21% -53.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$19 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions14
Markets (closed)14 / 28
History coverage17d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $16 $22 +$6 (+37%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 95¢ 94¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Prelims) Shane Collins 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $18 +$6 +33%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +259%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $14 +$19 +132%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $27 +$11 +40%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $15 +$21 +137%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre BUY Shane Collins 67¢ $1 2h
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 3h
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 3h
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 19h
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 19h
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 36h
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 36h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $1 41h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 47h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 47h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $1 2d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $1 2d
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 2d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 2d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $1 2d
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $1 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 2d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 2d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 2d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? BUY No 95¢ $1 3d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? BUY No 94¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.70 · official $58.72 (match) · 83 history records