Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:11:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedc2…ba65 world 100 markets active 2h ago coverage 333d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate30%29W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$9
14 days−$20
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$15
politics 24% −$1
other 22% −$6
sports 11% −$2
economics 4% $0
finance 2% −$19
crypto 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.2% -10.6% 17% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 30 -4.1% -13.2% 30% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 80 -1.6% -11.0% 26% 0% -9.8%
all 98 -2.0% -11.3% 30% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 1% -9.8%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

333d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses29 / 69
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)98 / 100
History coverage333d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 98 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 84¢ 84¢ $111 $111 +$0 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $114 −$3 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $255 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 20 $115 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $233 +$1 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $131 −$4 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $107 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $46 +$4 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $128 −$14 -11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $60 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $140 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $140 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $140 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $54 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $13 +$1 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $386 −$2 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $97 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $137 +$2 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $509 −$1 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $113 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $328 −$3 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $142 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $154 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $232 −$2 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $224 −$19 -9%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $408 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $311 −$4 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $155 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $310 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $21 −$3 -14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $140 +$10 +8%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $2 $0 -11%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $144 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $155 +$3 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $274 +$1 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $159 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $143 −$2 -1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $322 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $147 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $161 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $146 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $307 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $307 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $147 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $293 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 13 $146 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 13 $146 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $146 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $236 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $111 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $110 22h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $114 39h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $20 43h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $28 43h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $16 43h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $50 43h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $114 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $114 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $84 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $31 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $115 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $114 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 86¢ $126 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $131 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $107 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $107 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $62 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $27 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $30 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $119 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $50 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 36¢ $46 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 70¢ $114 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $128 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $2 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $58 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $9 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $19 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $32 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.06 · official $110.88 (match) · 409 history records