Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

ED 0xedc3…f923 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$8,573 (+50%) realized +$8,645 · open −$72

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip

Net edge+18%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%12W / 6L

Whale WR80%big bets

Drawdown15%max

Avg bet$911per market

Trades / day17.3pace

Fees−$212est.

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$384now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+33.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+47.1%	+33.1%	67%	67%	+34.1%
≤30d	18	+47.1%	+33.1%	67%	67%	+34.1%
≤90d	18	+47.1%	+33.1%	67%	67%	+34.1%
all	18	+47.1%	+33.1%	67%	67%	+34.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover17.3 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+33.1%	67%	+34.1%
10% ← realistic here	+20.4%	67%	+21.2%
15%	+8.8%	67%	+9.5%
20%	-1.9%	56%	-1.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 57% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +47% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 80% (≥$745) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +68% → late +26% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$850 vs −$347 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.9 per $1 lost it wins $4.9

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$384

Realized+$8,645

Unrealized−$72

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses12 / 6

Whale WR (big bets)80%

Est. fees paid−$212

Open positions1

Markets (closed)18 / 19

History coverage2d

Avg bet$911

Trades / day17.3

Drawdown15%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet - Map 1 Winner	So:sweet	38¢	32¢	$456	$384	−$72 (-16%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Türkiye vs. United States: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	Jun 26	$284	−$280	-98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Second half draw?	Jun 26	$241	+$999	+414%
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	Jun 26	$886	+$1,050	+119%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	Jun 26	$1,440	+$1,012	+70%
Tunisia to win the second half?	Jun 25	$51	−$50	-97%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs T1 Academy - Map 1 Winner	Jun 25	$78	−$78	-100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score	Jun 25	$157	−$157	-100%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick W	Jun 25	$242	−$242	-100%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championsh	Jun 25	$91	+$122	+134%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C	Jun 25	$10,093	+$4,720	+47%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner	Jun 25	$27	+$20	+73%
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam	Jun 25	$745	+$1,134	+152%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 25	$301	+$304	+101%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	Jun 25	$1,275	−$1,275	-100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$484	+$369	+76%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	Jun 25	$317	+$296	+93%
Counter-Strike: Alpha Dominion Nation vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21	Jun 24	$137	+$169	+124%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5	Jun 24	$4	+$2	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet - Map 1 Winner	BUY So:sweet	38¢	$153	1h
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet - Map 1 Winner	BUY So:sweet	38¢	$156	1h
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet - Map 1 Winner	BUY So:sweet	38¢	$156	1h
Türkiye vs. United States: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	BUY Under	48¢	$284	3h
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	45¢	$886	6h
Tunisia to win the second half?	BUY Yes	4¢	$51	6h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Second half draw?	BUY Yes	19¢	$241	6h
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	58¢	$1,440	6h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C	BUY Nigma Galaxy	36¢	$31	16h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner	BUY Nigma Galaxy	57¢	$27	16h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C	BUY Team Spirit	67¢	$1,394	18h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C	BUY Team Spirit	67¢	$1,428	18h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C	BUY Team Spirit	67¢	$1,714	18h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C	BUY Team Spirit	67¢	$973	19h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C	BUY Team Spirit	67¢	$1,786	19h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C	BUY Team Spirit	68¢	$976	19h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C	BUY Team Spirit	68¢	$1,791	19h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs UNO MILLE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championsh	BUY UNO MILLE	42¢	$91	22h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick W	BUY MIBR Academy	29¢	$85	22h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam	BUY Team Novaq	38¢	$150	23h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam	BUY Team Novaq	38¢	$146	23h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick W	BUY MIBR Academy	31¢	$78	23h
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick W	BUY MIBR Academy	31¢	$78	23h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam	BUY Team Novaq	38¢	$150	23h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam	BUY Team Novaq	38¢	$147	23h
Counter-Strike: Team Novaq vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournam	BUY Team Novaq	43¢	$152	25h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	45¢	$1,275	27h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	51¢	$157	28h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	BUY Under	56¢	$484	41h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	51¢	$317	41h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $384.00 · official $384.00 (match) · 54 history records