Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:36:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
ED 0xedcb…01e9 crypto 206 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$573 (+10%) realized +$560 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%113W / 92L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$167
7 days+$523
14 days+$539
30 days+$595
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$579
sports 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 +5.1% -4.9% 56% 55% +0.5%
≤30d 157 +4.9% -5.1% 57% 55% +0.8%
≤90d 205 +1.6% -8.0% 55% 52% -0.5%
all 205 +1.6% -8.0% 55% 52% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 52% -0.5%
10% -16.8% 48% -10.0%
15% -24.9% 47% -18.7%
20% -32.2% 44% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$17 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$560
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses113 / 92
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)205 / 206
History coverage48d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 205 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Up 49¢ 56¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $17 +$14 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $207 +$97 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $155 +$138 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$13 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $303 +$45 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $69 −$66 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $67 +$92 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$19 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 18 $93 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $57 +$26 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$25 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$15 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$29 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$13 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$17 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $103 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $78 +$51 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$38 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$15 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Up 49¢ $104 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $122 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $303 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $207 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $116 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $348 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $303 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $69 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $31 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $67 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $19 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $40 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.27 · official $113.27 (match) · 369 history records