Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedcc…4d5e sports 467 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,061 (+30%) realized +$5,003 · open +$58
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate20%94W / 370L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day47.4pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$707
7 days+$971
14 days+$1,469
30 days+$2,940
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$1,198
finance 30% +$2,622
world 6% +$18
crypto 5% −$215
sports 5% −$150
weather 0% −$2
politics 0% −$3
tech 0% +$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +21.5% +10.0% 29% 29% +39.4%
≤30d 153 -35.4% -41.6% 17% 16% +37.0%
≤90d 464 -17.0% -24.9% 20% 18% +18.0%
all 464 -17.0% -24.9% 20% 18% +18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.9% 18% +18.0%
10% ← realistic here -32.1% 16% +6.7%
15% -38.7% 14% -3.6%
20% -44.7% 12% -13.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$12 · ×6.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$5,003
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses94 / 370
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions3
Markets (closed)464 / 467
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day47.4
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 464 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Down 15¢ 44¢ $30 $87 +$57 (+190%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 13¢ 19¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+46%)
Will turnout in the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary be between 110,000 and 120,000 voters? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 221 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -22%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 17 $456 −$70 -15%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $44 −$43 -97%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 16 $2 −$1 -34%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $257 +$821 +319%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $59 −$37 -63%
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs One Coin (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Gr Jun 14 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -63%
Australia to win the second half? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -73%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $228 +$305 +134%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $227 +$27 +12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs 100 Thieves (BO1) - North America League Sta Jun 11 $1 −$1 -57%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? Jun 11 $31 +$171 +550%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $1 $0 -52%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $252 −$251 -100%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $34 +$4 +11%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $176 +$145 +82%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $154 −$82 -53%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $26 −$22 -86%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $12 +$5 +45%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $148 +$21 +14%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Global Esports (-2.5) vs FULL SENSE (+2.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -75%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $22 −$6 -27%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Dragon Ranger Gaming (-7.5) vs XLG Gaming (+7.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-9.5) vs TYLOO (+9.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $73 +$5 +6%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $18 −$2 -9%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $72 +$200 +278%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $384 +$368 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $0 $0 -96%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Legacy (-6.5) vs Monte (+6.5) Jun 07 $0 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Team Vamos (BO7) - MP Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs One Coin (+1.5) Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Rainbow Six Siege: EDward Gaming vs One Coin (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -70%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $8 −$2 -29%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs Johnny Speeds (+3.5) Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Game Handicap: AG (-1.5) vs Titan Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 06 $1 −$1 -69%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $0 $0 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Spirit vs Virtus.pro (BO5) - MLBB Conti Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BIG (-9.5) vs Monte (+9.5) Jun 06 $2 −$1 -34%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 06 $4 $0 +10%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 05 $1 $0 -0%
Will BIG qualify to Stage 2 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 34¢ $70 58m
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 15¢ $63 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17? SELL Yes $5 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes $2 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes $1 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes $2 10h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 17? BUY Yes $1 10h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No $2 22h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down $30 24h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down $9 24h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down $36 24h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under $0 24h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under $0 24h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under $0 25h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Under $1 25h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Under $0 25h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under $0 25h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under $2 25h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 39¢ $190 26h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 18¢ $21 28h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 19¢ $52 29h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 16¢ $136 29h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 20¢ $206 29h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 31¢ $8 29h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 22¢ $198 31h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $7 32h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $16 33h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 48¢ $260 46h
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 31¢ $17 2d
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 30¢ $122 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.64 · official $95.61 · 3500 history records