Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:54:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedcc…1f0d other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$31 (-3%) realized −$72 · open +$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$106
7 days+$118
14 days−$46
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$67
world 22% −$164
sports 4% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +41.9% +28.4% 56% 22% +5.7%
≤30d 11 +24.4% +12.6% 45% 18% -13.9%
≤90d 11 +24.4% +12.6% 45% 18% -13.9%
all 11 +24.4% +12.6% 45% 18% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.6% 18% -13.9%
10% +1.8% 18% -22.1%
15% -8.0% 18% -29.6%
20% -17.1% 18% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$44 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage9d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 82¢ 99¢ $190 $231 +$41 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $31 −$23 -76%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$6 -54%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 +$97 +474%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $242 −$69 -28%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $193 +$107 +55%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 $0 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 $0 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $164 +$12 +7%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $156 −$156 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $100 −$8 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 59m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 20h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 20h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 21h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 21h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 23¢ $17 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 37¢ $55 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 75¢ $90 24h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 24h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 42h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 43h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 0¢ $13 43h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $16 43h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 43h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 43h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $148 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.72 · official $230.72 (match) · 42 history records