Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
ED 0xedd0…731c sports 926 markets active 0h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,012 (-5%) realized −$8,832 · open −$180
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate62%570W / 355L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$745est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$277
7 days−$502
14 days−$273
30 days−$472
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$9,530
other 7% −$428
crypto 0% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -8.4% -17.1% 59% 56% -13.8%
≤30d 243 -3.1% -12.3% 63% 61% -10.7%
≤90d 727 -5.0% -14.1% 61% 61% -15.8%
all 925 -4.2% -13.3% 62% 61% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 61% -14.7%
10% -21.6% 56% -22.8%
15% -29.2% 42% -30.3%
20% -36.1% 29% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$184 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$8,832
Unrealized−$180
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses570 / 355
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$745
Open positions2
Markets (closed)925 / 926
History coverage111d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 925 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ 64¢ $151 $150 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 66¢ 0¢ $179 $0 −$179 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 332 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $96 +$57 +59%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $256 +$226 +88%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $171 +$85 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $304 −$300 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $326 +$148 +46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $178 +$148 +84%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $113 +$64 +57%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $160 −$158 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $130 +$30 +23%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $303 +$119 +40%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $122 −$120 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $157 −$22 -14%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $131 +$26 +20%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $144 −$128 -89%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $304 −$300 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $301 +$147 +49%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $215 +$85 +40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $184 +$32 +17%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $115 +$69 +60%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $114 −$112 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $201 −$199 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $152 +$49 +32%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $115 +$37 +32%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $327 −$323 -99%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $99 +$43 +44%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $116 +$69 +59%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $182 −$179 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $182 −$180 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $81 −$80 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $202 +$120 +59%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 12 $202 +$134 +66%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $247 +$160 +65%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $196 +$51 +26%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $115 +$81 +71%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Seri Jun 11 $114 −$112 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $205 −$203 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $114 +$91 +79%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $114 −$113 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $114 −$112 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $113 −$112 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $99 −$98 -99%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs UNiTY esports (BO3) - United21 Playof Jun 10 $75 −$74 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $203 +$169 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ $152 19m
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage SELL Fnatic 100¢ $153 21m
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Fnatic 62¢ $96 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $96 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ $99 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $181 6h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $203 8h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta SELL Bebop 100¢ $482 8h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 52¢ $256 13h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 66¢ $171 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $304 27h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $474 27h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 68¢ $326 29h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $326 29h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $178 31h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $178 31h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 63¢ $113 32h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY SPARTA 62¢ $160 35h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro SELL illwill 99¢ $160 35h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro BUY illwill 80¢ $130 35h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 100¢ $422 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $122 42h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 71¢ $303 42h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $425 42h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 63¢ $22 43h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 43h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 73¢ $16 44h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 7¢ $7 44h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 7¢ $9 44h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 31¢ $134 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.68 · official $149.68 (match) · 1557 history records