Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:50:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedd0…5bcb politics 5 markets active 52d ago coverage 49d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (70 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$664 (+46%) realized +$664 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day69.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 100% +$339
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+38.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 +4.8% -5.2% 75% 75% -8.2%
all 5 +53.2% +38.6% 80% 80% +11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +38.6% 80% +11.7%
10% ← realistic here +25.3% 20% +1.0%
15% +13.2% 20% -8.8%
20% +2.1% 20% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
158.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$100 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.39 per $1 lost it wins $4.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$664
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$290
Trades / day69.8
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $153 +$22 +14%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $367 +$47 +13%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $450 −$100 -22%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $349 +$50 +14%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $130 +$320 +247%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $29 51d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $59 51d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $167 51d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $253 51d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 51d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $269 64d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 68d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 68d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 68d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 68d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 68d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 68d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 68d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 68d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 68d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 69d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 69d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 69d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 69d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 69d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 69d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 69d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 69d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 69d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 69d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 69d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $14 69d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 69d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $15 69d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 69d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records