Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:48:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
ED 0xedd3…8c49 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+5%) realized +$16 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$13
crypto 13% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -8.7% -17.4% 40% 40% -1.8%
≤30d 5 -8.7% -17.4% 40% 40% -1.8%
≤90d 5 -8.7% -17.4% 40% 40% -1.8%
all 5 -8.7% -17.4% 40% 40% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 40% -1.8%
10% -25.3% 40% -11.2%
15% -32.5% 40% -19.8%
20% -39.1% 40% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$13 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Jun 29 $40 $0 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $66 +$44 +67%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 49m
Will France win on 2026-06-30? SELL Yes 77¢ $40 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $66 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 8¢ $10 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 8¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 4¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 4¢ $30 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.31 · official $99.32 (match) · 13 history records