Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:17:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedd6…a9a6 crypto 1059 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$262 (+4%) realized −$484 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%481W / 608L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day73.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$122
7 days−$128
14 days−$449
30 days−$459
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$421
weather 3% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 205 -20.8% -28.4% 51% 51% -24.6%
≤30d 1064 -9.4% -18.0% 45% 41% -16.5%
≤90d 1089 -10.0% -18.6% 44% 41% -16.7%
all 1089 -10.0% -18.6% 44% 41% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 41% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 33% -24.7%
15% -33.5% 23% -31.9%
20% -40.0% 17% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$484
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses481 / 608
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1089 / 1059
History coverage40d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day73.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1089 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 25? No 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 21? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 65¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 13? No 55¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on May 4? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$3 -113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$5 -129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 5? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 5? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -115%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 5? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +156%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records