Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:27:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
ED 0xedda…2e39 other 259 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$732 (-2%) realized −$550 · open −$182
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%101W / 148L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$499now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$47
14 days+$37
30 days+$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$511
world 6% −$254
crypto 5% −$240
politics 5% −$210
finance 2% +$34
sports 1% −$7
culture 0% +$47
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -17.5% -25.4% 50% 50% +3.8%
≤30d 17 -25.2% -32.3% 35% 35% +2.8%
≤90d 85 -12.2% -20.6% 41% 35% -13.3%
all 249 -6.4% -15.3% 41% 35% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 35% -12.7%
10% -23.4% 28% -21.0%
15% -30.8% 22% -28.7%
20% -37.6% 14% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$36 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$499
Realized−$550
Unrealized−$182
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses101 / 148
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions10
Markets (closed)249 / 259
History coverage234d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1? Yes 59¢ 35¢ $431 $255 −$175 (-41%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? No 33¢ 34¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 25¢ 1¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 15 $64 +$25 +40%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $30 −$13 -43%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $193 +$65 +34%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Jun 02 $42 −$40 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 02 $21 −$20 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Jun 01 $10 −$5 -47%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $31 +$58 +188%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $30 +$32 +106%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $100 +$13 +13%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 22 $609 +$131 +22%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 22 $445 −$2 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 20 $30 −$5 -17%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $72 −$17 -23%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week May 09 $329 +$94 +29%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? May 09 $55 +$44 +81%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 08 $15 +$27 +180%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $6 +$22 +391%
Will the DHS shutdown end after April 30, 2026? Apr 30 $130 −$129 -99%
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale? Apr 30 $103 +$50 +49%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? Apr 29 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? Apr 28 $240 −$113 -47%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 24 $130 −$130 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $172 −$10 -6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Apr 24 $30 +$1 +5%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) Apr 23 $30 +$26 +86%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $29 −$7 -24%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $179 +$16 +9%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $147 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 21 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $50 −$25 -49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 17 $77 +$24 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 17 $100 −$98 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 17 $40 −$39 -96%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 17 $50 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Apr 17 $58 +$22 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 17 $30 +$15 +51%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 17 $50 +$15 +30%
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 17 $80 −$28 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Apr 16 $200 +$64 +32%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 16 $60 −$57 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Apr 16 $50 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Apr 16 $100 +$34 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $31 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 49¢ $1 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 49¢ $15 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 49¢ $25 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 49¢ $9 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 54¢ $27 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 56¢ $24 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 56¢ $4 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 60¢ $59 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 58¢ $29 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 60¢ $1 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 61¢ $0 9h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 61¢ $4 9h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 61¢ $6 9h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 61¢ $12 9h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 61¢ $7 9h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 62¢ $31 9h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 62¢ $17 10h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 62¢ $14 10h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 65¢ $20 10h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 62¢ $19 15h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 62¢ $2 15h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 62¢ $11 15h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 62¢ $16 15h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 62¢ $14 15h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 64¢ $32 17h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 64¢ $32 17h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL Yes 28¢ $27 20h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 26¢ $26 27h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL Yes 41¢ $39 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $499.39 · official $499.43 (match) · 1322 history records