Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:01:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
ED 0xede4…1c40 weather 272 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$7 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate85%218W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$3
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 +3.2% -6.7% 87% 55% -9.1%
≤30d 255 -1.0% -10.4% 85% 48% -9.5%
≤90d 255 -1.0% -10.4% 85% 48% -9.5%
all 255 -1.0% -10.4% 85% 48% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 48% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 28% -18.2%
15% -26.8% 5% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses218 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)255 / 272
History coverage26d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19? No 97¢ 98¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 17? No 86¢ 98¢ $28 $32 +$4 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? No 89¢ 78¢ $35 $30 −$5 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? No 93¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 84¢ 86¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? No 77¢ 66¢ $19 $16 −$3 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? No 97¢ 95¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 18? No 97¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 17? No 70¢ 48¢ $11 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? No 96¢ 93¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? No 73¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 17? No 72¢ 73¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? No 85¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 17? No 94¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 17? No 89¢ 87¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? No 70¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? No 81¢ 69¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $28 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $12 +$4 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 17 $2 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 17 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $2 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $11 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$6 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $47 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $7 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 16 $14 +$5 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $25 +$6 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $19 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$3 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $14 +$6 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 17? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 15 $8 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 15 $11 +$2 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $18 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 14 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 14 $13 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 14 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $17 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $6 +$2 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? BUY No 70¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $15 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $12 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $28 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $35 25h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 75¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $3 29h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $9 32h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $18 32h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 86¢ $28 32h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 18? BUY No 77¢ $19 32h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 89¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $1 35h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 72¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 70¢ $11 36h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 84¢ $17 36h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $12 36h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $1 36h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $5 36h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 75¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 15? BUY No 94¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 79¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.22 · official $198.21 (match) · 697 history records