Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:48:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xede7…e643 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%9W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% $0
world 34% −$2
finance 1% −$1
sports 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 22% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 27 -3.8% -12.9% 30% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 35 -2.9% -12.2% 26% 0% -9.6%
all 36 -5.6% -14.6% 25% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 0% -10.0%
10% -22.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -30.2% 0% -26.5%
20% -37.1% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses9 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage485d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $70 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $99 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $48 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $33 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $15 −$2 -12%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $34 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $78 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $42 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 30 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $42 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 28 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $74 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $37 −$1 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $32 −$1 -3%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $827 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $237 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $93 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $261 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $283 $0 -0%
UAB vs. Rice Mar 03 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $32 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $32 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $22 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $32 11h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $33 26h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $32 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $33 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $33 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $1 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $29 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 70¢ $36 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $33 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $9 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $25 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $27 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $6 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $36 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.36 · official $4.36 (match) · 150 history records