Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:17:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

ED
0xedec…d967
weather · 702 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$260 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$264 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$253
Realized−$264
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses216 / 461
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions25
Markets (closed)677 / 702
History coverage59d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 25 History 677 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$126
14 days−$479
30 days−$358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Yes 33¢ 100¢ $20 $60 +$40 (+200%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? Yes 38¢ 41¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Yes 33¢ 46¢ $15 $21 +$6 (+39%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Yes 42¢ 34¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Yes 30¢ 55¢ $8 $14 +$6 (+82%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $16 $13 −$3 (-19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $14 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Yes 19¢ 21¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Yes 17¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Ukraine coup attempt by June 30? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $7 $1 −$5 (-81%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $38 +$62 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 +$41 +214%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $23 +$27 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Will SpaceX raise between $80B and $90B in its IPO? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $30 −$29 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$4 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$39 +338%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $25 +$45 +181%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $23 +$37 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$11 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 10 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 11? Jun 10 $4 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 10 $23 −$22 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 11? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 +$21 +253%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$22 +358%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 10? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 10? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 10? Jun 09 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 10? Jun 09 $10 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 7? Jun 08 $2 +$4 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 7? Jun 08 $2 +$8 +434%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 08 $9 +$11 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 +$7 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 8? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 8? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 +$26 +661%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 +$7 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $4 +$6 +149%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 87% −$192
crypto 12% −$61
other 1% −$1
world 1% −$15
sports 0% +$12
economics 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 42m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 62¢ $37 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 65¢ $40 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 27h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +30.2% +17.8% 39% 36% +12.7%
≤30d 617 -8.6% -17.3% 28% 26% -17.4%
≤90d 677 -3.6% -12.8% 32% 30% -15.1%
all 677 -3.6% -12.8% 32% 30% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 30% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 27% -23.2%
15% -28.8% 25% -30.6%
20% -35.7% 23% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.38 · official $253.56 (match) · 2046 history records