Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:23:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
ED 0xeded…8f1b other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,530 (-17%) realized −$2,530 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$881per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$875
7 days−$3,236
14 days−$3,236
30 days−$3,236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$3,238
sports 4% −$23
crypto 3% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -22.1% -29.5% 41% 24% -29.1%
≤30d 17 -22.1% -29.5% 41% 24% -29.1%
≤90d 17 -22.1% -29.5% 41% 24% -29.1%
all 17 -22.1% -29.5% 41% 24% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 24% -29.1%
10% -36.3% 12% -35.9%
15% -42.4% 0% -42.1%
20% -48.1% 0% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$1,010) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -40% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$114 vs −$404 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,530
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage7d
Avg bet$881
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $1,010 −$523 -52%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $435 −$30 -7%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $179 +$58 +32%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $183 −$5 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $161 +$23 +14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $520 −$312 -60%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $552 −$86 -16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,091 +$94 +9%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $202 +$57 +28%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $50 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $101 −$59 -58%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $408 −$158 -39%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $501 +$25 +5%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $202 −$200 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $4,858 −$2,612 -54%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,510 +$350 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,015 +$193 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 27¢ $487 42m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 52¢ $405 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Brazil 70¢ $405 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $473 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $435 12h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 12h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 75¢ $179 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 58¢ $179 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $183 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $184 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $161 40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 17¢ $160 41h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $368 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 44h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 73¢ $466 44h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $552 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 81¢ $556 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 74¢ $160 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $289 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 3d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 22¢ $42 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 18¢ $59 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 18¢ $177 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $256 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records