Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:53:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
ED 0xedf2…326a other 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,513 (-10%) realized −$1,919 · open −$594
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%60W / 51L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,659now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$386
7 days−$1,085
14 days−$2,959
30 days−$1,987
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$286
sports 25% −$822
crypto 21% −$119
world 18% −$1,676
politics 1% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -10.2% -18.8% 61% 49% -16.4%
≤30d 105 -9.5% -18.1% 53% 45% -19.1%
≤90d 111 -9.2% -17.8% 54% 46% -19.3%
all 111 -9.2% -17.8% 54% 46% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 46% -19.3%
10% -25.7% 30% -27.0%
15% -32.9% 23% -34.1%
20% -39.5% 16% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$122 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$1,659
Realized−$1,919
Unrealized−$594
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses60 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions6
Markets (closed)111 / 117
History coverage72d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Over 90¢ 88¢ $720 $700 −$20 (-3%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? No 93¢ 88¢ $400 $379 −$21 (-5%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? No 85¢ 75¢ $212 $187 −$25 (-12%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No 17¢ 10¢ $300 $173 −$127 (-42%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 84¢ 28¢ $504 $165 −$339 (-67%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Over 58¢ 28¢ $116 $55 −$61 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $401 +$33 +8%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $401 +$33 +8%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $817 −$175 -22%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 20 $324 −$324 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $220 −$157 -71%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $240 +$160 +67%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $111 +$39 +35%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $360 +$40 +11%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $459 +$51 +11%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $65 +$35 +54%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $438 +$42 +10%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $356 +$44 +12%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $128 +$22 +18%
Czechia to score first vs. South Africa? Jun 18 $21 +$9 +46%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $214 +$26 +12%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 18 $206 +$162 +78%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $201 −$201 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $218 −$218 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $222 +$28 +13%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $62 −$53 -86%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $57 −$47 -83%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $13 +$6 +48%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $188 +$12 +6%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $430 +$69 +16%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $501 +$30 +6%
Portugal to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 17 $94 +$16 +17%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $962 −$44 -5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 17 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $283 +$117 +42%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $264 +$36 +14%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $604 −$604 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $131 +$73 +55%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $542 +$115 +21%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $440 +$70 +16%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $64 +$16 +24%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $89 +$11 +12%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $301 +$32 +11%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $92 +$12 +13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$44 +216%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $202 +$84 +42%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $161 +$49 +31%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $39 −$3 -8%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$54 -89%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $270 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $720 38m
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? SELL No 100¢ $434 42m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $434 42m
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 85¢ $50 42m
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 85¢ $28 42m
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 85¢ $23 42m
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 85¢ $55 42m
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 85¢ $57 42m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $117 43m
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 93¢ $401 44m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $401 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 92¢ $401 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 95¢ $501 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL No 33¢ $113 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Brazil 23¢ $63 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 90¢ $316 2h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 78¢ $102 2h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 78¢ $118 2h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY No 90¢ $162 8h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $380 8h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $79 8h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY No 90¢ $9 8h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY No 90¢ $9 8h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY No 90¢ $180 8h
United States to score first vs. Australia? BUY Yes 73¢ $111 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $240 10h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY No 81¢ $81 15h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? BUY No 81¢ $243 15h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 65¢ $65 25h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $401 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,658.83 · official $1,658.83 (match) · 344 history records