Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:50:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedf4…7898 other 108 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate7%8W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$12
politics 36% −$11
sports 6% −$5
crypto 4% −$1
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 85 -0.4% -9.9% 5% 1% -9.7%
all 107 -5.9% -14.8% 7% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 4% -9.6%
10% -23.0% 4% -18.3%
15% -30.4% 4% -26.2%
20% -37.3% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×8.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 99
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage120d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $206 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $182 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $226 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $191 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $162 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 06 $187 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $152 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $198 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $159 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $210 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $223 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $202 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $196 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $165 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $165 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $190 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $198 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $211 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $165 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $379 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $195 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $210 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $167 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $180 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $382 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $390 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $382 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $194 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $165 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $201 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $215 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $224 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $404 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $424 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $170 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $361 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $231 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $188 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $205 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $383 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $233 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 4d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $35 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $35 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $31 15d
Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $31 15d
Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $31 19d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $20 24d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 25d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $206 28d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $206 30d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $182 33d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $182 35d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $172 35d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $172 35d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $226 39d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $226 40d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $191 42d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $191 48d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $162 48d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $162 49d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $187 49d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $187 50d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $180 50d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $180 51d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $171 51d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $171 51d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $152 51d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $152 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.98 · official $35.98 (match) · 301 history records