Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:27:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedf5…c94c other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$57 (-4%) realized −$27 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%23W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$18
14 days−$27
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$82
crypto 21% −$8
politics 3% −$1
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -1.2% -10.7% 62% 59% -11.0%
≤30d 41 -10.5% -19.0% 56% 54% -14.6%
≤90d 41 -10.5% -19.0% 56% 54% -14.6%
all 41 -10.5% -19.0% 56% 54% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 54% -14.6%
10% -26.8% 44% -22.8%
15% -33.8% 37% -30.3%
20% -40.3% 24% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$23 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses23 / 18
Open positions10
Markets (closed)41 / 51
History coverage24d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $49 $40 −$9 (-19%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 81¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $24 $17 −$7 (-29%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-14%)
Will Plasma reach $0.30 by December 31, 2026? Yes 38¢ 50¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+31%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $24 $12 −$12 (-50%)
Another pandemic before GTA VI? No 50¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 26 $249 −$19 -8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $26 +$4 +15%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $26 +$4 +16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $26 +$9 +34%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $26 +$23 +88%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $26 +$10 +39%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $26 +$34 +133%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $26 +$13 +50%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $59 +$27 +46%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $26 +$5 +19%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $26 +$14 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $26 +$32 +122%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $31 −$29 -95%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $26 +$15 +57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $26 +$8 +30%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $26 +$13 +50%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -95%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 20 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $52 +$49 +95%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $26 +$18 +68%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 +$15 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 +$2 +9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 +$18 +68%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -95%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $26 +$10 +39%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $26 −$25 -95%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL No 50¢ $230 1h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $249 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $26 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $26 16h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 18h
Another pandemic before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $10 18h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 18h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 57¢ $26 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $26 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $26 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $26 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $26 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $26 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $26 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $26 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $26 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $59 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $26 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $26 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $26 5d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $26 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $26 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $26 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $26 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $26 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.58 · official $181.58 (match) · 106 history records