Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:15:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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ED 0xedf6…cf40 politics 456 markets active 1h ago coverage 353d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable politics specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 353d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$17,670 (-9%) realized −$17,736 · open +$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%272W / 181L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$426per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$900now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 353d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$6,561
world 16% −$2,051
tech 11% +$7,002
other 6% −$889
sports 6% +$805
crypto 5% −$205
culture 4% −$4,369
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -41.9% -47.4% 50% 50% -8.8%
≤30d 2 -41.9% -47.4% 50% 50% -8.8%
≤90d 175 -64.9% -68.2% 19% 17% -66.9%
all 453 +10.1% -0.4% 60% 50% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 50% -12.6%
10% -9.9% 43% -20.9%
15% -18.6% 34% -28.6%
20% -26.6% 28% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -63% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +59% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$188 vs −$318 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

353d coverage
Net worth$900
Realized−$17,736
Unrealized+$66
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses272 / 181
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions4
Markets (closed)453 / 456
History coverage353d ⚠
Avg bet$426
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 453 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 66¢ 73¢ $397 $438 +$41 (+10%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $247 $252 +$6 (+2%)
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $169 $130 −$38 (-23%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Yes 13¢ 49¢ $21 $79 +$58 (+276%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,305 +$213 +16%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $390 +$1,516 +388%
Will Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during King Charles visit? May 09 $30 +$5 +16%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 21 $569 −$565 -99%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 21 $37 −$37 -99%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $204 −$203 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 21 $152 −$152 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 21 $743 −$735 -99%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 21 $2,447 −$2,427 -99%
Will Trump say "Greenland" during events with Rutte? Apr 09 $53 +$47 +89%
Will Trump say "Macron" or "France" during events with Rutte? Apr 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Trump say "Putin" during events with Rutte? Apr 08 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during events with Rutte? Apr 08 $193 −$193 -100%
Will Trump say "Fake news" during events with Rutte? Apr 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump say "F-15" or "F-15E" during events with Rutte? Apr 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Trump say "Thank you" 5+ times during the Easter Lunch on Wednesd Apr 07 $316 −$316 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 07 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Trump say "Peace" during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday? Apr 07 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Military" during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday? Apr 07 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday? Apr 07 $480 −$480 -100%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Apr 07 $114 −$112 -98%
Will Trump say "God" 7+ times during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday? Apr 07 $64 −$64 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 03 $1,385 +$497 +36%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Apr 02 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $391 +$9 +2%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $486 +$14 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 31 $30 +$70 +238%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 31 $539 +$353 +65%
Will Trump say "Job" 15+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25? Mar 26 $656 −$68 -10%
Will Trump say "Democrat" 15+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25? Mar 26 $841 +$196 +23%
Will Trump say "Iran" 7+ times during Memphis Roundtable? Mar 24 $3 +$6 +223%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Memphis Roundtable? Mar 24 $16 +$10 +64%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? Mar 23 $311 +$85 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 23 $416 +$337 +81%
Will Trump say "Golden Age" during Miami address? Mar 23 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Trump say "Kharg Island" during events with Japanese PM? Mar 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 4+ times during C5+1 Summit on Novem Mar 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump say "Steve" or "Witkoff" during events with the President o Mar 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Trump say "Black American" 5+ times during the Black History Mont Mar 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Trump say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 10+ times during events Mar 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Trump say "Peace Through Strength" at Fort Bragg on Friday? Mar 23 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during Taoiseach events? Mar 23 $172 −$165 -96%
Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during announcement today? Mar 23 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Trump say "Vietnam" or "Korea" during 9-11 memorial event? Mar 23 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29? Mar 23 $291 −$281 -96%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 12+ times during M Mar 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 7+ times during Miami address? Mar 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump say "Nobel" during events with PM of Canada on Oct 7? Mar 23 $58 −$58 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 75¢ $101 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 83¢ $201 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 82¢ $201 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 82¢ $201 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 85¢ $201 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 95¢ $401 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $203 2h
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 20¢ $390 36d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? SELL No 0¢ $4 54d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? SELL No 0¢ $0 54d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? SELL No 0¢ $1 54d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? SELL No 0¢ $0 54d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? SELL No 1¢ $8 54d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? SELL No 0¢ $19 54d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 31¢ $8 66d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 31¢ $54 66d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 33¢ $65 66d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 34¢ $134 66d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 35¢ $140 66d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 35¢ $70 66d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 35¢ $71 66d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 38¢ $14 66d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 38¢ $1 66d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 38¢ $15 66d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 38¢ $35 66d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 38¢ $10 66d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 38¢ $17 66d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 38¢ $1 66d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 38¢ $1 66d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 38¢ $1 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $899.52 · official $899.52 (match) · 3500 history records