Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:02:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedf7…4003 sports 599 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d only
✗ bot/MM pace (195 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,214 (-8%) realized −$8,282 · open +$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%249W / 534L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day194.7pace
Fees−$1,477est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$5,288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10,870
7 days−$13,041
14 days−$10,245
30 days−$7,065
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$3,609
other 17% +$265
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (195 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 366 -53.2% -57.7% 7% 7% -55.3%
≤30d 783 -3.8% -13.0% 32% 28% -16.6%
≤90d 783 -3.8% -13.0% 32% 28% -16.6%
all 783 -3.8% -13.0% 32% 28% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover194.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 28% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 25% -24.6%
15% -28.9% 22% -31.9%
20% -35.9% 20% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$45 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$5,288
Realized−$8,282
Unrealized+$68
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses249 / 534
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1,477
Open positions7
Markets (closed)783 / 599
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$163
Trades / day194.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 783 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5,104 $5,239 +$134 (+3%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 24¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+18%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ 36¢ $25 $18 −$7 (-27%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 1.5 Under 42¢ 0¢ $63 $1 −$62 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Kayseri: Ksenia Smirnova vs Mariia Bergen Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $23 −$22 -96%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $17 −$17 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 21 $31 −$41 -133%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 −$51 -101%
ITF Montemor-O-Novo: Francisca Jorge vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 21 $51 −$48 -94%
Spread: Thailand (-1.5) Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Moldova win on 2026-06-05? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GLYPH - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $106 −$105 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Birmingham: James McCabe vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 21 $77 −$76 -99%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Fluxo - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $43 −$43 -100%
ITF Wuning: Alexandra Shubladze vs Hina Inoue Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $25 −$37 -152%
Will FC Universitario vs. Club Aurora end in a draw? Jun 21 $64 −$64 -100%
Perugia: Valentin Royer vs Nicolas Alvarez Varona Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Europ Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Will AC Nagano Parceiro win on 2026-06-05? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Guatemala vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $44 −$44 -100%
Prostejov: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Lautaro Midon Jun 21 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
ITF Sumter: Malaika Rapolu vs Cadence Brace Jun 21 $25 +$16 +66%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
FC Tōkyō leading at halftime? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
ITF Montemor-O-Novo: Savannah Broadus vs Viktoria Morvayova Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Club ABB win on 2026-05-30? Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Benin vs. Niger: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Makarska: Barbora Palicova vs Elina Avanesyan Jun 21 $9 +$33 +379%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $68 −$68 -100%
Puerto Rico vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Daria Kuznetsova vs Anna Bazderova Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Foggia: Chloe Paquet vs Nika Radisic Jun 21 $36 −$36 -100%
ITF Sumter: Katrina Scott vs Reese Brantmeier Jun 21 $17 −$12 -68%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 21 $67 −$67 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Makarska: Noma Noha Akugue vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Jun 21 $34 +$5 +14%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $24 −$5 -20%
Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Svitolina (+1.5) Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $30 20m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 23m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 24m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 26m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $40 27m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 28m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 29m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 34m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 39m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $100 40m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 41m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 43m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 48m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 49m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 50m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 50m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $42 51m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 54m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 56m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $16 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $47 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $60 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,288.26 · official $5,288.26 (match) · 3500 history records