Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:17:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedf7…5644 politics 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$304 (+0%) realized +$302 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate28%38W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$771per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$789now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$11
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$62
other 31% −$325
sports 14% +$671
world 3% −$10
culture 3% −$4
crypto 2% +$1
economics 0% $0
finance 0% +$17
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 60 -2.2% -11.5% 8% 0% -10.2%
all 137 -1.9% -11.3% 28% 9% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 9% -9.3%
10% -19.8% 9% -18.0%
15% -27.5% 7% -25.9%
20% -34.6% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,067) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$12 · ×3.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$789
Realized+$302
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses38 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)137 / 139
History coverage150d
Avg bet$771
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $575 $578 +$3 (+0%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 100¢ 99¢ $212 $212 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $243 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $1,234 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $2,344 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $245 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $929 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,731 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,406 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,426 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,346 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $975 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $3,080 −$4 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,853 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,097 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $297 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $356 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $426 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $248 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,499 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $625 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,155 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 11 $1,048 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $3,124 −$4 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $1,050 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,569 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $2,851 −$4 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,059 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $2,472 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $953 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 02 $219 +$1 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $754 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $205 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,352 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,921 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,066 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $2,063 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $815 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,066 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $2,108 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $4,182 −$4 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $985 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,078 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,067 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $212 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $243 19h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $243 23h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $281 6d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $281 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $200 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $200 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $244 9d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $245 9d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $279 9d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $279 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $575 10d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $823 13d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $825 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $786 14d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $788 15d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $951 15d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $952 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $924 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $925 16d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $819 16d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $820 16d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $808 17d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $810 17d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $974 20d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $975 20d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,003 21d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,004 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $789.35 · official $789.35 (match) · 444 history records