trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 19 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 74% | 37% | +2.9% |
| ≤30d | 26 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 77% | 38% | +2.4% |
| ≤90d | 26 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 77% | 38% | +2.4% |
| all | 26 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 77% | 38% | +2.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.9% | 38% | +2.4% |
| 10% | -17.6% | 31% | -7.4% |
| 15% | -25.6% | 12% | -16.3% |
| 20% | -32.9% | 0% | -24.5% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | $65 | $67 | +$2 (+2%) |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? | No | 81¢ | 80¢ | $15 | $15 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? | No | 92¢ | 90¢ | $15 | $15 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 93¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? | No | 93¢ | 92¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $9 | $9 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $7 | $7 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | No | 83¢ | 62¢ | $7 | $5 | −$2 (-25%) |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | 52¢ | 50¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? | Jun 22 | $32 | +$8 | +26% |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? | Jun 22 | $9 | +$4 | +41% |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | Jun 22 | $10 | +$1 | +9% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 22 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $10 | +$3 | +28% |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? | Jun 21 | $5 | $0 | +10% |
| Spread: Spain (-5.5) | Jun 21 | $35 | +$3 | +10% |
| Spread: Spain (-4.5) | Jun 21 | $175 | +$32 | +18% |
| Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) | Jun 21 | $10 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 21 | $5 | −$2 | -35% |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? | Jun 20 | $4 | +$1 | +34% |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? | Jun 20 | $20 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? | Jun 19 | $5 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | Jun 19 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | Jun 19 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? | Jun 19 | $10 | +$1 | +11% |
| San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves | Jun 18 | $51 | +$19 | +38% |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? | Jun 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers | Jun 14 | $56 | +$5 | +9% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels | Jun 13 | $31 | +$11 | +35% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds | Jun 13 | $30 | +$1 | +4% |
| New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays | Jun 13 | $31 | +$10 | +32% |
| Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies | Jun 11 | $10 | +$4 | +38% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers | Jun 11 | $10 | $0 | +5% |