Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:37:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedfd…1c9b crypto 352 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$500 (-4%) realized −$500 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate85%298W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$129
7 days−$90
14 days−$326
30 days−$339
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$744
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -4.8% -13.8% 87% 18% -10.7%
≤30d 83 -12.7% -21.0% 77% 24% -12.3%
≤90d 174 -9.7% -18.3% 80% 21% -14.4%
all 352 -5.0% -14.1% 85% 25% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 25% -14.4%
10% -22.3% 8% -22.6%
15% -29.8% 4% -30.0%
20% -36.7% 2% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$33 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$500
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses298 / 54
Open positions0
Markets (closed)352 / 352
History coverage127d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 352 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $91 +$16 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $81 +$9 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $202 +$30 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $191 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $181 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $171 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $170 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $161 +$11 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $150 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $141 +$13 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$12 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $121 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $110 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $132 −$130 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $131 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $111 +$20 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $301 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $291 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $290 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $201 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $201 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $301 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $292 +$33 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $251 +$17 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $201 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $201 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $250 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $202 +$30 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 07 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 07 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 07 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 07 $48 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $244 −$196 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 07 $202 +$28 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 07 $302 −$300 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 07 $202 +$37 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 07 $103 +$105 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 07 $301 +$17 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $91 13m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $81 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $202 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $201 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $191 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $181 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $171 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $170 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $161 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $150 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $141 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $121 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $110 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $132 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $131 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $111 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $301 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $291 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $290 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $201 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $201 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $201 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $200 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 760 history records