Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:29:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedfe…9056 world 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$5
other 23% −$6
sports 16% $0
finance 4% −$2
politics 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -4.4% -13.5% 33% 0% -11.2%
≤30d 28 -0.9% -10.4% 36% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 39 -2.8% -12.1% 31% 0% -9.8%
all 49 -5.9% -14.8% 35% 2% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 2% -10.1%
10% -23.0% 2% -18.7%
15% -30.4% 0% -26.6%
20% -37.2% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 32
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage531d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $61 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $2 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $102 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $13 −$4 -28%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $27 +$2 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $18 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $75 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $35 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $86 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +2%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $24 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $23 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $70 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $123 +$1 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $71 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $105 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $70 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $14 −$1 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $68 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $2 −$1 -43%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $68 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $35 −$1 -4%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $2 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $4 −$1 -33%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $78 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $240 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $40 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 29 $6 $0 +4%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? May 21 $5 +$2 +29%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ole Miss win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 30 $3 $0 +1%
Will Payton Pritchard win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Feb 23 $3 $0 -12%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Feb 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Samuel score a touchdown? Feb 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Ravens and Bills combine for 52 or more points? Feb 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $32 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $19 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $13 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $2 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $30 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $30 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $29 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $29 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 13¢ $4 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 13¢ $3 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 13¢ $2 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $13 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $32 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $1 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $30 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $33 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $2 5d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 6d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $26 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 38¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 204 history records