Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:22:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
ED 0xedff…f6ba world 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 520d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate40%32W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$5
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$7
politics 28% +$1
sports 14% −$3
other 11% +$1
economics 4% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 1% −$2
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.4% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 26 -2.0% -11.4% 27% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 55 -0.9% -10.3% 29% 0% -9.8%
all 80 +3.8% -6.1% 40% 10% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 10% -9.9%
10% -15.0% 8% -18.5%
15% -23.3% 6% -26.4%
20% -30.8% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

520d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses32 / 48
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage520d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $95 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $33 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $67 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $116 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $34 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $34 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $48 −$4 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $68 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $32 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $78 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $27 +$1 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $32 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $34 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 24 $71 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $29 −$3 -11%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $1 $0 +7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 14 $40 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $76 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $77 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $113 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $21 $0 +2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $124 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $4 $0 -2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $73 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $74 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $51 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 10 $117 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $72 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $36 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $114 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $33 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $34 35h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $34 35h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $33 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $33 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $31 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $31 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $17 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $14 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $13 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $13 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $30 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $5 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $34 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $8 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $3 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $5 8d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $31 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $31 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 9d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.13 · official $33.13 (match) · 295 history records