Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:19:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee01…dbb1 other 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$42 (-3%) realized +$6 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$187
7 days−$120
14 days−$120
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$221
sports 15% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -12.5% -20.9% 55% 55% -21.8%
≤30d 12 -6.0% -15.0% 58% 58% -20.6%
≤90d 12 -6.0% -15.0% 58% 58% -20.6%
all 12 -6.0% -15.0% 58% 58% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 58% -20.6%
10% -23.1% 58% -28.2%
15% -30.5% 58% -35.1%
20% -37.4% 25% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$81 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)12 / 20
History coverage21d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+10%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $50 $14 −$36 (-72%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 11¢ 10¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-14%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $74 +$33 +45%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $116 +$97 +84%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 18 $263 −$263 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $52 +$21 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $56 +$68 +121%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $131 +$48 +36%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $52 +$19 +36%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $16 +$10 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $19 21m
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $53 23m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $53 30m
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 2¢ $5 31m
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 11¢ $16 41m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $53 44m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $74 45m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $53 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $213 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $94 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $74 5h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $28 29h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 47h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $53 47h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $52 47h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $72 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $131 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $263 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $52 8d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 19d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 55¢ $16 19d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.88 · official $298.22 · 55 history records