Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:17:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee01…dd1f other 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 400d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$1
other 30% −$1
politics 7% +$3
economics 6% $0
crypto 6% +$1
finance 2% $0
sports 1% −$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.1% -10.5% 20% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 9 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.7%
all 31 -1.4% -10.8% 55% 10% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 10% -9.6%
10% -19.4% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.1% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

400d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage400d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $29 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $12 $0 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $65 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $94 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $13 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 27 $7 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $30 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 15 $2 $0 +3%
Will AppLovin buy TikTok? Dec 15 $1 $0 -12%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 26 $11 $0 +1%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 26 $5 +$3 +49%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 06 $7 $0 +3%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 04 $2 $0 +16%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? Jun 02 $6 +$1 +12%
Will Jack Draper win the 2025 French Open? May 31 $11 $0 +0%
Will Kwon Yeong-guk win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential ele May 30 $12 +$1 +5%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 29 $16 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? May 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 28 $12 $0 +2%
Will Man City qualify for the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League? May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? May 24 $11 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy purchases >14000 BTC May 20-26? May 23 $1 $0 -20%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? May 22 $22 $0 -0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 21 $21 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $23 0m
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 0m
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $29 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 17h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 17h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $15 39h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $16 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $49 45h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $50 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $49 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $49 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $30 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $44 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 34¢ $31 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $30 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $8 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 91¢ $7 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 91¢ $15 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 25d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records