Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:22:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EE 0xee02…ce88 weather 907 markets active 4h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$489 (+6%) realized +$519 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate49%249W / 263L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day66.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$208
14 days−$986
30 days−$968
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 45% −$241
other 38% −$693
sports 15% −$46
crypto 1% −$18
culture 1% −$1
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
politics 0% +$1
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 +12.1% +1.5% 39% 38% -27.2%
≤30d 512 +18.3% +7.0% 49% 34% -28.1%
≤90d 512 +18.3% +7.0% 49% 34% -28.1%
all 512 +18.3% +7.0% 49% 34% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.0% 34% -28.1%
10% ← realistic here -3.2% 28% -35.0%
15% -12.6% 23% -41.3%
20% -21.1% 18% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$519
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses249 / 263
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions34
Markets (closed)512 / 907
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day66.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 512 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Spain? No 87¢ 86¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? No 89¢ 100¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+12%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 26? Yes 9¢ 98¢ $2 $20 +$18 (+982%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–10%? No 70¢ 93¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+34%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Draw at halftime? Yes 33¢ 44¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+30%)
Croatia leading at halftime? Yes 33¢ 39¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+17%)
Will Club Independiente Petrolero win on 2026-05-30? No 64¢ 81¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 27? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-46%)
Will CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo win on 2026-05-22? Yes 76¢ 20¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-74%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 27? Yes 9¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 26? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on June 26? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 27? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 27? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 81°F or below on June 27? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 27? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 100°F or higher on June 27? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 26? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on June 26? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 100°F or higher on June 26? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 98-99°F on June 27? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 26? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 26? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 81°F or below on June 26? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 26? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $15 +$5 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $12 −$10 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $13 +$4 +30%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 25? Jun 26 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Japan to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 25? Jun 25 $9 −$4 -46%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Neither team to score first? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Curaçao to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 25? Jun 25 $18 +$2 +13%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 25 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 25 $0 +$6 +5500%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 24? Jun 25 $7 +$5 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 24? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Czechia to score first vs. Mexico? Jun 25 $1 +$1 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24? Jun 25 $6 −$5 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks winning after 5 innings? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $7 +$13 +203%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 25 $15 +$5 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? Jun 24 $7 −$2 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7 +$12 +182%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $17 +$3 +16%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24? Jun 24 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $87 +$12 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 23? Jun 24 $23 −$3 -14%
Colombia to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Croatia to score first vs. Panama? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Cincinnati Reds winning after 5 innings? Jun 24 $0 +$1 +567%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 23? Jun 23 $3 +$8 +236%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $23 −$15 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $7 +$13 +171%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? Jun 23 $8 +$12 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 23? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 23? Jun 23 $4 +$9 +212%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26? BUY No 89¢ $18 3h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 26? BUY No 98¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 26? BUY No 58¢ $12 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 26¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 41¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 46¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26? BUY No 9¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 33¢ $0 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 26? BUY No 59¢ $7 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 97¢ $11 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 26? BUY No 17¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 11¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 54¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 26? BUY No 70¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 52¢ $6 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 9¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 27? BUY No 94¢ $19 12h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 27? BUY No 77¢ $16 12h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 27? BUY No 21¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 27? BUY No 21¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 27? BUY No 75¢ $15 12h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $20 12h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 27? BUY No 95¢ $19 12h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $20 12h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 44¢ $2 14h
Japan to score first vs. Sweden? BUY No 31¢ $2 18h
Netherlands to win the second half? BUY No 33¢ $7 18h
Tunisia to win the second half? BUY No 89¢ $18 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.80 · official $106.80 (match) · 3500 history records