Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee0d…7fa6 other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%19W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$18
14 days−$24
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$24
politics 20% −$14
sports 17% −$11
crypto 13% −$18
world 6% −$3
economics 6% −$4
finance 3% −$2
culture 1% −$4
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -1.0% -10.5% 13% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 62 -0.9% -10.3% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 111 -0.6% -10.1% 13% 0% -9.9%
all 132 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses19 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage106d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 95¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $40 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $52 +$1 +2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $168 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $58 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $115 −$3 -3%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $51 −$1 -2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $54 −$1 -3%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 13 $159 −$2 -1%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $46 $0 -1%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $53 −$1 -3%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 12 $61 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 12 $55 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $60 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $241 −$2 -1%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $206 −$2 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 10 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $41 $0 -0%
Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $131 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $96 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 06 $51 −$2 -4%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $119 $0 -0%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 05 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 05 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $57 −$1 -2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 03 $43 −$1 -3%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $744 −$2 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $982 −$2 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $108 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $124 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $500 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $307 −$2 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $161 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 30 $44 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $42 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $55 1h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $52 1h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $52 7h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $57 8h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $57 14h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 95¢ $40 15h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $10 18h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $30 19h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 19h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $48 26h
Will Cape Verde reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $9 27h
Will Cape Verde reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $10 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $52 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $37 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $15 40h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 40h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $53 45h
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $57 46h
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $58 2d
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $39 2d
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $39 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $58 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $59 2d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 92¢ $50 2d
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 93¢ $51 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $52 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $54 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $59 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $60 3d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $39 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.74 · official $54.74 (match) · 539 history records