Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:36:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EE 0xee11…53c9 sports 616 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 80d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,533 (+8%) realized +$3,747 · open −$214
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate57%314W / 235L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day37.1pace
Fees−$248est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$39
14 days+$1,482
30 days+$1,800
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$1,867
crypto 34% −$479
other 5% +$1,497
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +1.7% -8.0% 71% 46% -11.1%
≤30d 125 +19.5% +8.1% 54% 41% +8.5%
≤90d 549 +2.4% -7.4% 57% 41% -2.8%
all 549 +2.4% -7.4% 57% 41% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 41% -2.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 31% -12.1%
15% -24.3% 26% -20.6%
20% -31.7% 22% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$29 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$1,118
Realized+$3,747
Unrealized−$214
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses314 / 235
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$248
Open positions67
Markets (closed)549 / 616
History coverage81d ⚠
Avg bet$70
Trades / day37.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 67 History 549 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $62 $106 +$44 (+72%)
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $72 $87 +$16 (+22%)
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $108 $82 −$26 (-24%)
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $83 $79 −$4 (-5%)
Will Elina Svitolina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $81 $63 −$18 (-23%)
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $83 $54 −$29 (-35%)
Will Andrey Rublev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $65 $46 −$19 (-29%)
Will Sebastian Korda be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $38 −$11 (-23%)
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $43 $37 −$6 (-13%)
Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $36 $34 −$2 (-6%)
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $42 $24 −$18 (-43%)
Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $64 $23 −$41 (-64%)
Will Félix Auger-Aliassime be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $26 $22 −$4 (-15%)
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Will Diana Shnaider be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+99%)
Will Jelena Ostapenko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-36%)
Will Emma Navarro be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $38 $18 −$20 (-52%)
Will Flavio Cobolli be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $19 $17 −$2 (-13%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+58%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Will Ugo Humbert be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $18 $14 −$4 (-22%)
Will Emma Navarro win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+57%)
Will Liudmila Samsonova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $21 $12 −$9 (-41%)
Will Linda Nosková be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+43%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $100 +$11 +11%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $182 +$23 +13%
Set 2 Winner: Sonmez vs Tararudee Jun 13 $100 +$5 +5%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $86 −$46 -54%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $10 +$6 +57%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $201 +$19 +9%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $252 +$132 +52%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $100 +$19 +18%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $20 −$14 -69%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $10 +$7 +65%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $232 +$21 +9%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $116 −$116 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $10 +$3 +32%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $10 +$6 +60%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $110 +$9 +8%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $10 +$6 +57%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $100 +$8 +8%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $200 −$33 -16%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $10 +$4 +40%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $10 +$6 +60%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $100 +$12 +12%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 09 $29 −$14 -50%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $67 +$1,017 +1521%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $441 +$54 +12%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $113 +$318 +280%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $710 −$9 -1%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $36 +$221 +620%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Anna Kalinskaya win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $10 +$70 +705%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Elina Svitolina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 02 $36 +$50 +139%
Will Diana Shnaider win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 01 $21 −$1 -5%
Will Anastasia Potapova win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $10 +$11 +103%
Will Laura Siegemund be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -65%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $10 +$8 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 1h
Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12h
Will Ekaterina Alexandrova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 12h
Will Xinyu Wang be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 12h
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 12h
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 12h
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 12h
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 12h
Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 12h
Will Ugo Humbert be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 12h
Will Ugo Humbert be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 12h
Will Ekaterina Alexandrova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 12h
Will Liudmila Samsonova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 13h
Will Donna Vekić be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 13h
Will Jelena Ostapenko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 13h
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 24h
Will Jelena Ostapenko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 25h
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Men's US Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 25h
Will Elise Mertens be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 25h
Will Xinyu Wang be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 25h
Will Jelena Ostapenko be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 25h
Will Emma Navarro be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 25h
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 25h
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 25h
Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 25h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 37¢ $10 25h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Alex de Minaur 75¢ $205 25h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 29¢ $10 25h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 52¢ $51 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,117.80 · official $1,117.83 (match) · 3500 history records