Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:11:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee12…50a4 other 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover
Total PnL +$199 (+32%) realized +$219 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate21%6W / 23L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$18
sports 15% +$122
crypto 12% −$78
world 2% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +27.8% +15.7% 21% 17% -4.9%
≤30d 29 +27.8% +15.7% 21% 17% -4.9%
≤90d 29 +27.8% +15.7% 21% 17% -4.9%
all 29 +27.8% +15.7% 21% 17% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.7% 17% -4.9%
10% +4.6% 17% -14.0%
15% -5.5% 17% -22.3%
20% -14.8% 17% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +114% → late -53% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$20 · ×4.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$219
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses6 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage3d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $26 +$129 +502%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $17 −$17 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $5 +$74 +1444%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$75 +365%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $26 +$97 +379%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $29 +$119 +414%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 13¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 5h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 6h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 6h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 6h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 6h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 7h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 7h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 10h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 29h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 29h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 29h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 31h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.30 (match) · 42 history records