Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:25:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EE 0xee16…16a2 sports 1009 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$161 (-1%) realized −$158 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate52%518W / 485L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day30.3pace
Fees−$173est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days+$26
14 days+$115
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$360
other 9% +$59
politics 4% +$22
world 3% +$32
finance 2% −$2
weather 1% −$19
tech 0% +$86
crypto 0% −$32
culture 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +12.3% +1.6% 53% 53% -7.7%
≤30d 301 +3.1% -6.7% 49% 48% -11.3%
≤90d 1003 -1.6% -11.0% 52% 47% -10.5%
all 1003 -1.6% -11.0% 52% 47% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 47% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 44% -19.1%
15% -27.3% 41% -26.9%
20% -34.4% 34% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$158
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses518 / 485
Est. fees paid−$173
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1003 / 1009
History coverage89d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day30.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1003 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+60%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ 50¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ 39¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 11¢ $14 $1 −$14 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 206 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $5 +$9 +172%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 16 $20 −$1 -5%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $2 +$8 +325%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $13 +$9 +73%
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $15 +$25 +162%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $11 +$9 +83%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -99%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 15 $8 +$12 +158%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $10 +$17 +165%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $11 +$9 +82%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $33 +$19 +59%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$10 +48%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $12 −$12 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $12 +$8 +61%
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? Jun 14 $128 −$27 -21%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$14 +134%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $13 +$23 +180%
Set Handicap: Agut (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 14 $13 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $12 +$18 +158%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $11 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$14 +138%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +105%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $15 +$14 +96%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 13 $11 −$10 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $20 +$19 +93%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Game Handicap: KCB (-1.5) vs Forsaken (+1.5) Jun 12 $17 +$13 +79%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $10 +$10 +96%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $11 +$9 +82%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $11 +$19 +180%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 40¢ $18 58m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 50¢ $20 1h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Kimberly Birrell 56¢ $8 15h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 36¢ $5 15h
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez BUY Juan Sebastian Gomez 23¢ $2 26h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 54¢ $11 27h
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) BUY Team Nemesis 38¢ $11 28h
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) BUY Team Nemesis 38¢ $4 28h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 37¢ $10 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 36h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argen BUY 14¢ $10 36h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $13 37h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $12 45h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $11 46h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 67¢ $20 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 64¢ $21 2d
Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? SELL Yes 45¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie BUY illwill 30¢ $3 2d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 62¢ $12 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 54¢ $11 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 37¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $10 2d
Set Handicap: Agut (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) BUY Agut 21¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 60¢ $12 2d
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 38¢ $8 2d
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY LYON 38¢ $8 2d
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY 9z 25¢ $11 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 51¢ $10 2d
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY 9z 25¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.97 · official $77.97 (match) · 3399 history records