trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 6¢ | 8¢ | $30,529 | $38,703 | +$8,174 (+27%) |
| Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 2¢ | 1¢ | $10,327 | $6,042 | −$4,285 (-41%) |
| Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $1,207 | $1,485 | +$278 (+23%) |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Knicks | 36¢ | 36¢ | $1,080 | $1,065 | −$15 (-1%) |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 2¢ | 3¢ | $741 | $827 | +$85 (+12%) |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 4¢ | 3¢ | $1,050 | $701 | −$349 (-33%) |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 6¢ | 6¢ | $635 | $650 | +$15 (+2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $1,611 | +$4,040 | +251% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 09 | $955 | +$1,045 | +109% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 08 | $10,493 | −$232 | -2% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 06 | $1,000 | +$1,046 | +105% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 04 | $5,655 | +$9,345 | +165% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 02 | $142,910 | +$83,582 | +58% |
| Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi | Jun 02 | $1,120 | −$1,120 | -100% |
| Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec | Jun 01 | $6,375 | −$322 | -5% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 31 | $21,767 | +$28,233 | +130% |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | May 20 | $11,797 | +$7,215 | +61% |
| Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | May 20 | $18,183 | +$11,145 | +61% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 18 | $2,516 | +$425 | +17% |
| Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | May 17 | $22,858 | −$22,858 | -100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 12 | $1,710 | +$721 | +42% |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by June 30, 2026? | Apr 24 | $50 | −$11 | -21% |
| Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines | Apr 10 | $886 | −$886 | -100% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Apr 07 | $4,915 | −$4,915 | -100% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | Mar 29 | $1,412 | −$245 | -17% |
| Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Mar 24 | $1,133 | +$3,400 | +300% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | Mar 24 | $309 | −$309 | -100% |
| Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? | Mar 24 | $10,129 | −$10,129 | -100% |
| Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? | Mar 24 | $749 | +$18,364 | +2452% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Mar 01 | $874 | −$652 | -75% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET | Feb 25 | $212 | +$195 | +92% |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | Feb 19 | $49,357 | −$37,955 | -77% |
| Will Visa (V) beat quarterly earnings? | Jan 30 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings? | Jan 30 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Capital One (COF) beat quarterly earnings? | Jan 29 | $122 | +$1,122 | +922% |
| Will Trump meet with Friedrich Merz in January 2026? | Jan 22 | $2,344 | −$2,121 | -90% |
| Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in January 2026? | Jan 22 | $125 | −$99 | -80% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +115.7% | +95.1% | 75% | 75% | +28.4% |
| ≤30d | 13 | +57.7% | +42.7% | 69% | 69% | +35.0% |
| ≤90d | 22 | +120.6% | +99.6% | 55% | 55% | +32.3% |
| all | 30 | +104.9% | +85.4% | 47% | 47% | +14.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +85.4% | 47% | +14.2% |
| 10% | +67.6% | 43% | +3.3% |
| 15% ← realistic here | +51.4% | 43% | -6.7% |
| 20% | +36.6% | 40% | -15.8% |