Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:47:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EE 0xee18…2b44 crypto 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$62 (+15%) realized +$62 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate62%24W / 15L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$45
14 days+$56
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% +$49
crypto 34% +$10
other 27% $0
politics 4% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -1.1% -10.5% 57% 52% +9.7%
≤30d 39 +4.3% -5.6% 62% 59% +6.3%
≤90d 39 +4.3% -5.6% 62% 59% +6.3%
all 39 +4.3% -5.6% 62% 59% +6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 59% +6.3%
10% -14.7% 56% -3.9%
15% -22.9% 44% -13.2%
20% -30.5% 33% -21.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$62
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses24 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)39 / 44
History coverage14d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-93%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $25 +$6 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 +$3 +66%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -57%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $8 +$8 +97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -75%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 +$6 +10%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$9 -56%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $13 +$9 +65%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 08 $5 −$4 -83%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lisa Pigato Jun 08 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $10 −$1 -6%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $10 +$8 +78%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $10 +$4 +43%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $15 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 07 $15 −$11 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$4 +44%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $5 +$5 +105%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 06 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 06 $15 −$3 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 06 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 06 $11 +$5 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 06 $22 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 31 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $10 7m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Texas Rangers 99¢ $31 32m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 95¢ $20 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $8 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 3h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies 100¢ $16 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 6h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $5 7h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $5 7h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 50¢ $8 7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 9h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 20h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $50 21h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 21h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels SELL Los Angeles Angels 100¢ $14 21h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 72¢ $10 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 28h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 100¢ $17 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.28 · official $46.28 (match) · 106 history records