Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:42:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EE 0xee1a…a6f9 other 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
Total PnL −$100 (-4%) realized −$21 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%41W / 67L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$68
14 days+$293
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$267
sports 16% −$24
crypto 5% $0
world 4% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -33.3% -39.6% 24% 24% +5.2%
≤30d 66 +21.5% +10.0% 39% 39% -9.2%
≤90d 108 +22.4% +10.7% 38% 38% +6.8%
all 108 +22.4% +10.7% 38% 38% +6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.7% 38% +6.8%
10% +0.1% 38% -3.4%
15% -9.5% 37% -12.7%
20% -18.4% 35% -21.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$12 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses41 / 67
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 147
History coverage44d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 28¢ 6¢ $98 $19 −$79 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $3 +$2 +76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $21 −$21 -98%
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24 Jun 25 $64 +$34 +53%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $40 +$30 +76%
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 +$5 +23%
Luka Modrić: 1+ goals Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 24 $7 −$4 -62%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $26 −$18 -72%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Martin Baturina: 1+ goals Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $3 +$11 +361%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $51 +$212 +414%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 +$5 +51%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $5 +$55 +1073%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$7 +69%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$8 +74%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $38 +$83 +221%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$13 +124%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 +$8 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $66 +$34 +52%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $53 +$51 +97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 28¢ $95 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 3h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 4h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $5 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29 BUY 6¢ $10 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29 BUY 18¢ $10 10h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AN BUY 4¢ $10 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 20¢ $49 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AN BUY 6¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? AND Will England win on 2026-06- BUY 8¢ $5 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 21¢ $25 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND BUY 1¢ $10 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? AND Will Egypt vs. IR Iran BUY 5¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY 31¢ $25 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26 BUY 2¢ $5 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in BUY 3¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 7¢ $8 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 11¢ $12 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY 7¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 5¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $21 4d
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $10 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- BUY 51¢ $25 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a dra BUY 1¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 3¢ $10 4d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2 BUY 2¢ $15 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.29 · official $19.29 (match) · 282 history records