Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:16:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee1c…315c crypto 165 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$113 (-1%) realized −$113 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate59%96W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$28
other 23% −$10
politics 13% −$2
sports 11% +$21
tech 3% +$10
world 2% −$2
weather 2% −$102
finance 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 +5.1% -4.9% 89% 11% -9.4%
≤90d 113 -17.3% -25.2% 55% 8% -10.6%
all 164 -9.7% -18.3% 59% 9% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 9% -10.1%
10% -26.1% 9% -18.7%
15% -33.3% 9% -26.6%
20% -39.8% 9% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses96 / 68
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)164 / 165
History coverage122d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $155 $155 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Prosperous Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian Nation Jun 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? Jun 26 $132 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $4 −$4 -99%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 31 $3 +$4 +146%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? May 31 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 28? May 30 $11 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? May 30 $144 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? May 28 $155 $0 +0%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 27 $4 +$3 +83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 27 $151 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 26 $142 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 26 $140 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 18-24? May 26 $154 $0 +0%
Roland Garros ATP: Federico Cina vs Reilly Opelka May 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 24 $5 +$4 +79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? May 24 $148 $0 +0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $267 $0 -0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 Week of May 18 2026? May 23 $154 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 22 $153 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on May 20? May 21 $153 $0 +0%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Tristan Schoolkate vs Kimmer Coppeja May 20 $2 +$4 +238%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 20 $150 $0 +0%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins May 19 $3 +$3 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 19 $145 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $240 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $148 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $148 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 15 $147 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $135 $0 -0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 on May 13? May 14 $138 +$8 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $139 $0 +0%
Zagreb: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Luka Pavlovic May 12 $2 +$3 +134%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11? May 12 $134 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $435 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on May 10? May 11 $136 $0 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marin Cilic vs Martin Landaluce May 10 $2 +$4 +152%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 10 $130 $0 +0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $122 $0 -0%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $240 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $78 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close at $245-$250 on the final day of trading of t May 09 $55 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 on May 7? May 08 $132 $0 +0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 07 $124 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 4? May 06 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on May 4? May 04 $102 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 02 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 2? May 02 $2 −$2 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $155 1h
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? BUY No 100¢ $132 26d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 61¢ $4 26d
Will Prosperous Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian Nation BUY No 100¢ $11 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $140 27d
Valorant: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $3 27d
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 27d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $144 28d
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $11 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 27? BUY No 100¢ $155 30d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Canadiens 42¢ $3 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $151 31d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $142 31d
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 54¢ $4 31d
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $142 31d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $140 31d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $140 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $154 33d
Roland Garros ATP: Federico Cina vs Reilly Opelka BUY Reilly Opelka 37¢ $3 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $148 34d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $142 34d
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 55¢ $5 34d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $142 34d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 Week of May 18 2026? BUY No 100¢ $154 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $153 36d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $153 37d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Vici Gaming 32¢ $2 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $150 38d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Tristan Schoolkate vs Kimmer Coppeja BUY Tristan Schoolkate 29¢ $2 38d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $145 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.00 · official $155.00 (match) · 306 history records