Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:03:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
EE 0xee1d…43ee other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$25 (+1%) realized −$22 · open +$47
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$323now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$298
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$26
crypto 4% +$7
world 1% +$29
sports 1% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +18.8% +7.5% 69% 50% -9.5%
≤30d 16 +18.8% +7.5% 69% 50% -9.5%
≤90d 16 +18.8% +7.5% 69% 50% -9.5%
all 16 +18.8% +7.5% 69% 50% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.5% 50% -9.5%
10% -2.8% 31% -18.1%
15% -12.2% 31% -26.0%
20% -20.8% 25% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$111 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$323
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage13d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 56¢ 66¢ $276 $323 +$47 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $158 +$102 +64%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 23 $103 −$74 -72%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $48 −$15 -31%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $51 −$12 -23%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $51 +$7 +14%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $376 −$374 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $35 +$6 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $432 +$41 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $297 +$135 +46%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$38 +249%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $81 −$80 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $32 +$29 +90%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $284 +$27 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $141 +$143 +102%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$7 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $280 46m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $121 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $260 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 60¢ $158 23h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 1¢ $29 24h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $33 24h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $39 24h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $57 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $74 25h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $301 27h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 5¢ $103 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $35 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $473 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $432 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $432 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $297 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 22¢ $61 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $32 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $311 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 91¢ $284 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $284 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $65 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $76 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $107 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $323.31 · official $318.38 · 48 history records