Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
EE 0xee21…083c sports 131 markets active 7h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,830 (+11%) realized +$1,824 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%67W / 63L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$116est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$153
14 days+$415
30 days−$149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,640
other 1% +$210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +53.4% +38.8% 67% 67% +15.8%
≤30d 26 +0.4% -9.2% 54% 54% -14.3%
≤90d 79 +4.5% -5.5% 46% 46% -10.0%
all 130 +10.6% +0.1% 52% 52% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 52% +0.8%
10% -9.5% 50% -8.8%
15% -18.2% 47% -17.6%
20% -26.2% 38% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$101 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized+$1,824
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses67 / 63
Est. fees paid−$116
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage166d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 67¢ 70¢ $134 $140 +$6 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 18 $59 −$58 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$149 +291%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $129 +$71 +55%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $131 +$69 +52%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $132 −$132 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $45 +$55 +122%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $135 +$65 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $139 +$61 +44%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $123 −$122 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $111 +$89 +79%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $164 +$86 +52%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 08 $115 +$85 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $135 −$133 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $101 +$49 +48%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $129 −$128 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $125 −$124 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $87 +$113 +129%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $111 −$110 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 30 $99 −$98 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 29 $115 +$85 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $119 +$81 +67%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $77 −$76 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $89 −$88 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $113 +$87 +76%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $113 −$112 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $109 −$108 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $65 −$64 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $67 −$66 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $67 +$133 +197%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 19 $49 −$48 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 19 $75 +$125 +165%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 17 $102 −$2 -2%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $79 +$121 +152%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $157 +$43 +27%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $117 −$114 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $75 +$125 +165%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $155 +$45 +29%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 08 $73 −$72 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $121 +$79 +65%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $145 +$55 +38%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 06 $64 +$36 +57%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 04 $120 −$117 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $122 −$119 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $168 −$165 -98%
Suns vs. Thunder May 01 $203 −$3 -2%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $91 −$90 -98%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 28 $129 −$127 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $172 +$222 +129%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $145 −$142 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 67¢ $135 6h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 29¢ $59 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $51 3d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $129 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $131 5d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 66¢ $25 6d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 66¢ $107 6d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $44 7d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $1 7d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $135 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $139 9d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 61¢ $123 10d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 55¢ $111 11d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $33 12d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $131 12d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Leviatán Esports 57¢ $115 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $135 16d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 67¢ $101 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $129 18d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ $125 19d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 55¢ $111 20d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 49¢ $99 21d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $87 22d
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $115 23d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 59¢ $119 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 38¢ $77 25d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 44¢ $89 26d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 56¢ $113 27d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 56¢ $113 28d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 54¢ $109 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.00 · official $140.00 (match) · 212 history records