Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:55:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EE 0xee27…c5e2 crypto 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,542 (-42%) realized −$1,449 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%32W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 61% −$248
world 29% −$1,043
other 10% −$346
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 59 -17.5% -25.4% 54% 54% -49.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 54% -49.1%
10% -32.5% 51% -54.0%
15% -39.1% 7% -58.4%
20% -45.0% 7% -62.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$74 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1,449
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses32 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage455d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $94 $1 −$93 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $31 −$30 -96%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $266 −$253 -95%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $516 −$516 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $244 −$244 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $51 −$51 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $59 −$59 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Feb 22 $332 −$332 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Feb 22 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Feb 22 $5 +$25 +525%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Feb 20 $240 +$60 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Feb 20 $24 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Feb 20 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Feb 20 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Feb 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Feb 20 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Feb 20 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Feb 19 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Feb 19 $196 +$49 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Feb 19 $157 +$39 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Feb 19 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Feb 19 $24 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Feb 19 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Feb 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Feb 19 $128 +$32 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Feb 19 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Feb 19 $24 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Feb 19 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Feb 19 $95 +$24 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Feb 19 $76 +$19 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Feb 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Feb 19 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Feb 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Feb 19 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Feb 19 $24 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Feb 19 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Feb 19 $26 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Feb 19 $50 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Feb 19 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Feb 19 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Feb 19 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Feb 19 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Feb 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Feb 19 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Feb 19 $35 +$10 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Feb 19 $24 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Feb 19 $19 +$10 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Feb 19 $18 −$18 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Feb 19 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Feb 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $96 1h
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 33d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 34d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $44 34d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 34d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $70 34d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $35 34d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $98 34d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $188 40d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 40d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 40d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 40d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 40d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 40d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 40d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $39 40d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 40d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $61 40d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 40d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $30 40d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 40d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $30 40d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $10 40d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $26 40d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $99 40d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 40d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $0 40d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 40d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? BUY Yes 0¢ $244 79d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $59 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.74 · official $2.71 · 171 history records